Bloque2 no AR

ESTIMACIÓN DE LA FUNCIÓN DE EXPORTACIONES DE
CATALUÑA A LOS PRINCIPALES PAÍSES EUROPEOS
Estimaciones individuales
Dependent Variable: LOG(X?)
Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:14
Sample(adjusted): 1988:1 1999:4
Included observations: 48 after adjusting endpoints
Number of cross-sections used: 6
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
FR--LOG(PIBFR)
GR--LOG(PIBGR)
IT--LOG(PIBIT)
PO--LOG(PIBPO)
RU--LOG(PIBRU)
RE--LOG(PIBRE)
FR--LOG(PRFR)
GR--LOG(PRGR)
IT--LOG(PRIT)
PO--LOG(PRPO)
RU--LOG(PRRU)
RE--LOG(PRRE)
FR--LOG(PRODUCT)
GR-LOG(PRODUCT)
IT--LOG(PRODUCT)
PO--LOG(PRODUCT)
RU--LOG(PRODUCT)
RE--LOG(PRODUCT)
FR--F2
GR--F2
IT--F2
PO--F2
RU--F2
RE--F2
FR--F3
GR--F3
IT--F3
PO--F3
RU--F3
RE--F3
FR--F4
GR--F4
IT--F4
PO--F4
RU--F4
RE--F4
Fixed Effects
FR--C
GR--C
IT--C
PO--C
RU--C
RE--C
1.882417
3.705778
2.937565
2.170656
2.238428
2.314900
-1.074719
-0.601663
-0.991921
-1.004370
-0.365162
-0.977464
2.658606
1.704086
0.951922
1.586783
1.256439
0.609146
0.822457
0.679931
0.247892
0.181157
0.239855
0.264094
0.207224
0.315444
0.541334
0.707282
1.977490
2.335402
2.338008
3.563443
2.721635
3.404613
-4.335432
-3.321231
-4.135502
-3.803072
-1.762157
-3.098696
4.911211
2.409344
0.0492
0.0204
0.0203
0.0004
0.0070
0.0008
0.0000
0.0011
0.0001
0.0002
0.0794
0.0022
0.0000
0.0168
1.719042
2.474519
2.250296
1.829203
0.010975
0.051444
0.018653
0.019272
0.065296
-0.037948
-0.160215
-0.112066
-0.238170
-0.097295
-0.072705
-0.145727
-0.020203
0.049552
-0.037037
-0.004846
0.027975
0.020286
0.596846
0.603731
0.499005
0.592927
0.030188
0.035002
0.030217
0.031695
0.030421
0.034850
0.030255
0.035106
0.030311
0.031900
0.030319
0.034913
0.030401
0.034973
0.030354
0.032501
0.030250
0.035006
2.880212
4.098709
4.509564
3.085040
0.363556
1.469749
0.617299
0.608031
2.146399
-1.088918
-5.295406
-3.192194
-7.857470
-3.049992
-2.397980
-4.173966
-0.664549
1.416887
-1.220147
-0.149105
0.924817
0.579506
0.0044
0.0001
0.0000
0.0023
0.7165
0.1431
0.5377
0.5438
0.0329
0.2774
0.0000
0.0016
0.0000
0.0026
0.0173
0.0000
0.5070
0.1579
0.2237
0.8816
0.3561
0.5628
R-squared
-4.441101
-12.01156
-9.293600
-5.650735
-6.214165
-5.956482
0.979534
Mean dependent var
5.279773
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.975685
0.073868
331.4048
1.593010
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.473719
1.189505
254.4880
0.000000
Estimación modelo de efectos fijos
Dependent Variable: LOG(X?)
Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:15
Sample(adjusted): 1988:1 1999:4
Included observations: 48 after adjusting endpoints
Number of cross-sections used: 6
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LOG(PIB?)
LOG(PR?)
LOG(PRODUCT)
F2
F3
F4
Fixed Effects
FR--C
GR--C
IT--C
PO--C
RU--C
RE--C
1.980629
-0.836394
2.384713
0.021157
-0.141288
0.003113
0.246744
0.074905
0.149943
0.014209
0.014221
0.014267
8.027043
-11.16602
15.90418
1.489009
-9.935353
0.218218
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.1378
0.0000
0.8274
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.972045
0.970805
0.080942
290.8658
1.397077
-4.863775
-4.171899
-4.990902
-4.694532
-4.971188
-4.583994
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
5.279773
0.473719
1.624784
783.9548
0.000000
Test paso de ecuaciones individuales a efectos fijos
S1 =1.189505
S0 =1.624784
Número de restricciones =35
Test F=
(1.624784 − 1.189505) / 30
= 2.63 ≈ F35, 216 = 1.6 al nivel del 1%, lo que permite
1.189505 /( 260 − 44)
rechazar la hipótesis nula.
Ecuaciones individuales estimadas por SURE
Dependent Variable: LOG(X?)
Method: Seemingly Unrelated Regression
Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:15
Sample: 1988:1 1999:4
Included observations: 48
Number of cross-sections used: 6
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260
Convergence achieved after 9 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
FR--LOG(PIBFR)
GR--LOG(PIBGR)
IT--LOG(PIBIT)
PO--LOG(PIBPO)
RU--LOG(PIBRU)
RE--LOG(PIBRE)
FR--LOG(PRFR)
GR--LOG(PRGR)
IT--LOG(PRIT)
PO--LOG(PRPO)
RU--LOG(PRRU)
RE--LOG(PRRE)
FR--LOG(PRODUCT)
GR-LOG(PRODUCT)
IT--LOG(PRODUCT)
PO--LOG(PRODUCT)
RU--LOG(PRODUCT)
RE--LOG(PRODUCT)
FR--F2
GR--F2
IT--F2
PO--F2
RU--F2
RE--F2
FR--F3
GR--F3
IT--F3
PO--F3
RU--F3
RE--F3
FR--F4
GR--F4
IT--F4
PO--F4
RU--F4
RE--F4
Fixed Effects
FR--C
GR--C
IT--C
PO--C
RU--C
RE--C
1.167642
1.929829
2.658298
1.817725
1.940344
2.235873
-0.752582
-0.353883
-0.945127
-0.720418
-0.467143
-0.488137
3.084926
2.594159
0.586848
1.232500
0.758756
0.464508
0.658669
0.717407
0.156075
0.146365
0.137816
0.196012
0.162555
0.335446
0.339807
0.554226
1.989682
1.565784
3.503498
3.913224
2.945856
3.116604
-4.821939
-2.417809
-6.857884
-3.675385
-2.873754
-1.455187
9.078464
4.680685
0.0479
0.1188
0.0006
0.0001
0.0036
0.0021
0.0000
0.0164
0.0000
0.0003
0.0045
0.1471
0.0000
0.0000
1.808447
2.914045
2.393136
2.240104
0.013116
0.041346
0.022676
0.029980
0.063013
-0.051607
-0.155076
-0.121737
-0.230899
-0.084485
-0.070859
-0.151520
-0.015226
0.038822
-0.030130
0.012979
0.028520
0.006449
0.362200
0.457589
0.401638
0.621911
0.024002
0.030554
0.020209
0.028436
0.029633
0.039703
0.024048
0.030605
0.020266
0.028576
0.029583
0.039769
0.024134
0.030523
0.020304
0.029078
0.029549
0.039867
4.992951
6.368251
5.958441
3.601968
0.546433
1.353205
1.122093
1.054288
2.126404
-1.299827
-6.448602
-3.977647
-11.39319
-2.956467
-2.395275
-3.810033
-0.630868
1.271897
-1.483934
0.446344
0.965181
0.161757
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0004
0.5853
0.1774
0.2631
0.2929
0.0346
0.1950
0.0000
0.0001
0.0000
0.0035
0.0175
0.0002
0.5288
0.2048
0.1393
0.6558
0.3355
0.8716
-1.180585
-4.037323
-8.003288
-4.064179
-4.821155
-5.721833
Weighted Statistics
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
0.978614
0.974592
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
5.279773
0.473719
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat
0.075511
1.560778
Sum squared resid
1.243015
Modelo de efectos fijos estimado por SURE
Dependent Variable: LOG(X?)
Method: Seemingly Unrelated Regression
Date: 11/23/02 Time: 13:17
Sample: 1988:1 1999:4
Included observations: 48
Number of cross-sections used: 6
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 260
Convergence achieved after 13 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LOG(PIB?)
LOG(PR?)
LOG(PRODUCT)
F2
F3
F4
Fixed Effects
FR--C
GR--C
IT--C
PO--C
RU--C
RE--C
1.722563
-0.779774
2.461583
0.023580
-0.182183
-0.013648
0.198322
0.066306
0.117279
0.017676
0.017691
0.017720
8.685685
-11.76016
20.98910
1.333993
-10.29807
-0.770225
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.1834
0.0000
0.4419
-3.645788
-2.984256
-3.780512
-3.465484
-3.740933
-3.387267
Weighted Statistics
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat
0.969970
0.968638
0.083892
1.399660
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
5.279773
0.473719
1.745402
Test paso de las ecuaciones individuales estimadas por SURE a Efectos Fijos
estimados por SURE
A través de las siguientes instrucciones:
Pr ocs → MakeSystem → Estimate
se obtiene:
∑1 = 1.39·10−15
∑0 = 1.63·10 −14
LR=2·(L* 1 – L* 0 ) = T·ln
rechazar la hipótesis nula.
∑0
∑1
= 118.16 ≈ χ 30 = 51 al nivel del 1%, lo que permite
AHORRO Y CRECIMIENTO SEGÚN EL MODELO DE CICLO
VITAL
Economía sin crecimiento
Economía con crecimiento
Por tanto, a pesar de que cada generación consuma su ahorro y legue herencias
nulas, si la economía crece el ahorro agregado es positivo porque lo que las
generaciones jóvenes ahorran sistemáticamente excede a lo que las generaciones de
retirados desahorran.
ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO SOBRE LA TASA
DE AHORRO EN LOS PAÍSES DE LA UNIÓN EUROPEA
Los datos empleados están formados por medias de diez años de las tasa de ahorro
nacional bruto con relación al PIB y por medias de crecimiento referido al PIB para
estos mismos periodos. Las medias contempladas hacen referencia a las décadas de
los sesenta (1961-1970), de los setenta (1971-1980) y de los ochenta (1981-1990).
Estimación modelo de efectos fijos por MCO
Dependent Variable: S?
Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:19 Sample: 1 3
Included observations: 3
Number of cross-sections used: 14
Total panel (balanced) observations: 42
Variable
G?
Fixed Effects
AT--C
BE--C
DK--C
ES--C
FI--C
FR--C
GR--C
IR--C
IT--C
NL--C
PO--C
SE--C
UK--C
WD--C
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
1.239689
22.16908
16.76770
15.80490
17.89743
20.26384
19.39717
20.69743
12.71865
20.16521
21.03437
19.90680
17.64623
14.90078
20.72363
0.770909
0.652121
2.269542
6.489782
0.000018
Std. Error
0.264353
t-Statistic
4.689514
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0001
23.10000
3.847901
139.0722
3.327183
Estimación modelo de efectos estocásticos
Dependent Variable: S?
Method: GLS (Variance Components)
Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:20
Sample: 1 3
Included observations: 3
Number of cross-sections used: 14
Total panel (balanced) observations: 42
Variable
C
G?
Random Effects
AT--C
BE--C
DK--C
ES--C
FI--C
FR--C
GR--C
IR--C
IT--C
NL--C
PO--C
SE--C
UK--C
WD--C
GLS Transformed
Regression
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat
Unweighted Statistics
including Random
Effects
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat
Coefficient
18.42008
1.283006
Std. Error
1.186678
0.255349
t-Statistic
15.52239
5.024526
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
2.792944
-1.394419
-2.127053
-0.560253
1.304259
0.631665
1.612743
-4.567024
1.223237
1.916813
0.995792
-0.696937
-2.815270
1.683502
0.664940
0.656564
2.255003
2.286839
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
23.10000
3.847901
203.4015
0.747002
0.740677
1.959495
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
23.10000
3.847901
153.5848
3.028598
Estimación del modelo de efectos fijos por MC ponderados
Dependent Variable: S?
Method: GLS (Cross Section Weights)
Date: 05/20/02 Time: 17:21
Sample: 1 3
Included observations: 3
Number of cross-sections used: 14 Total panel (balanced) observations: 42
Convergence achieved after 6 iterations
Variable
G?
Fixed Effects
AT--C
BE--C
DK--C
ES--C
FI--C
FR--C
GR--C
IR--C
IT--C
NL--C
PO--C
SE--C
UK--C
WD--C
Weighted Statistics
Coefficient
1.330743
Std. Error
0.082269
t-Statistic
16.17554
Prob.
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Unweighted Statistics
0.999262
0.998879
2.274509
2609.683
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
52.19698
67.92257
139.6816
3.058891
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Durbin-Watson stat
0.769902
0.650592
2.274523
3.352997
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
23.10000
3.847901
139.6833
21.85343
16.46419
15.54085
17.47858
19.92087
19.05420
20.27858
12.33319
19.81010
20.73086
19.47884
17.38520
14.67314
20.44136
Tipo modelo
Efectos fijos
Coef. Beta
1.24
Error estándar
0.264
Efectos estocásticos
1.28
0.255
Efectos fijos ponderados
1.33
0.082