Consumer confidence - Casa de Bolsa Banorte Ixe
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Economic Research Mexico Consumer confidence: November’s hike suggests that consumers are discounting better growth prospects Consumer confidence (November): 92.9 points; Banorte-Ixe: 89.2; consensus: 90 (range of estimates: 88.5 to 92pts.); previous: 90.6 Consumer confidence increased 4.7%yoy In seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up 3.3%m/m We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward trend in 1Q15 December 5, 2014 www.banorte.com www.ixe.com.mx @analisis_fundam Alejandro Cervantes Senior Economist, Mexico [email protected] Consumer confidence increased 4.7%yoy in November. We highlight the expansion in consumers’ perspectives regarding the household’s present and future economic outlook (4.5% and 2.6%yoy, respectively). Similarly, consumers’ expectations regarding the country’s present and future economic conditions expanded 4.5% and 2.1%yoy, respectively. Finally, the purchasing power component increased 11.1%yoy, as shown in the table below. Consumer confidence: November 2014 nsa index nsa Nov-14 Nov-13 %yoy 92.9 88.7 4.7 Current conditions 99.5 95.2 4.5 Expectations 101.3 98.8 2.6 Current conditions 88.0 84.3 4.5 Expectations 90.0 88.1 2.1 85.5 77.0 11.1 Headline index Household's National Household's purchasing power Source: INEGI In seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up 3.3%m/m. Taking a look at the breakdown, consumers’ expectations regarding the household’s present and future conditions increased 2.6% and 2.5%m/m, respectively. Moreover, consumer’s expectations regarding the country’s future conditions expanded 2.4%m/m. Finally, the purchasing power component increased a significant 5.2%m/m (refer to the chart on the next page). Document for distribution among public 1 Consumer confidence: November 2014 sa index sa Nov-14 Oct-14 %m/m 94.9 91.8 3.3 Current conditions 100.3 97.8 2.6 Expectations 101.3 98.8 2.5 Current conditions 91.4 91.5 0.0 Expectations 92.7 90.5 2.4 83.3 79.2 5.2 Headline index Household's National Household's purchasing power Source: INEGI We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward trend in 1Q15. We believe that the progress observed in the seasonally adjusted figures during the last ten months could be showing that consumers have continued to project a more positive outlook for the economic performance of Mexico. In this regard, we believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward trend, which will eventually translate into better growth dynamics in private spending. Disclaimer The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.} 2 GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE S.A.B. de C.V. 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