Major changes in European public opinion towards the EU since1973
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Major changes in European public opinion towards the EU since1973 Desk Research 2015 Edition STUDY Public Opinion Monitoring Series Directorate-General for Communication EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Jacques Nancy, Public Opinion Monitoring Unit PE 570.421- February 2016 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION....................................................................................... 2 1. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS ............ 4 1. Membership of the European Union and the benefits it brings5 2. Trust in the European Union ................................................. 11 3. The image of the European Union and what it means to Europeans ........................................................................... 12 4. Trust in the European institutions ........................................ 15 5. Knowledge of how the European institutions work .............. 21 6. Trust in national institutions ................................................ 26 II. DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION ........................................ 28 1. The voice of European citizens ............................................. 30 2. A feeling of European citizenship which survives the crisis .. 34 3. An enduring attachment to the European Union ................... 35 4. The components of an EU identity ........................................ 37 III. THE ECONOMY IN THE EU.............................................................. 39 1. The European economic situation and that of the national economy .............................................................................. 40 2. Economic projections ........................................................... 43 3. The European Union in the face of the crisis ........................ 47 4. Performance of the European economy ................................ 53 IV. THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS ............................................................ 55 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................... 59 1 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION INTRODUCTION Since 1973 and the birth of the Eurobarometer, the European Union has gone through various defining stages in its history and its institutional and political structure, affecting a wide range of issues: the strengthening of the institutions, the first direct elections to the European Parliament in 1979, successive enlargements, the signing of various European Treaties, the opening of borders between Member States, referendums and the introduction of the single currency. But the evolution of the European Union has also taken place during various periods of economic and political difficulty. It has seen the collapse of the Soviet bloc, international conflicts, several oil crises, periods of monetary instability, and, since 2008, a global financial and economic crisis which has resulted in aid plans being introduced for several Member States faced with very considerable economic difficulties. In 2015, the European Union has still to emerge from the crisis, even if the economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery. The Standard Eurobarometer, a survey established in 1973 and conducted twice a year (in spring and autumn), and the special Eurobarometers have ever since enabled changes in European public opinion to be measured among an ever-increasing number of Europeans as the various enlargements have taken place (from nine Member States in 1979 to 28 in 2013). TNS opinion has carried out an exploratory study for the European Parliament's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit to analyse changes in European public opinion over time on a number of issues. The first version of this study was carried out in 2013, followed by an update in early 2015, which took into account the surveys conducted in 2013 and 2014. Following the Standard Eurobarometer survey of spring 2015 and the Special 'Parlemeter' Eurobarometer survey in September 2015, the analysis should be updated. The following aspects were studied: - Changes in European public opinion with regard to the European Union and its institutions; - Democracy in the European Union; - The Economy of the European Union; - The lives of Europeans; Several indicators will be analysed in each of these areas. This analysis will attempt to take stock of European public opinion concerning these major themes. Each part starts with a box highlighting the main findings based on changes in the indicators. 2 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION This analysis is based on several quantitative Eurobarometer surveys conducted face-toface by the European Commission or European Parliament (Standard EB and Special EB)1. It relates mainly to the Eurobarometer surveys conducted since autumn 1989 (EB32), even though in most cases the questions analysed have only been asked more recently, sometimes only in a limited number of waves. On certain questions, the analysis goes back to the first time the question was asked (EB0 in September 1973 in the case of the question on membership of the EU, or EB19 in spring 1983 in the case of the perceived benefits of membership of the European Union). The analysis is based on the European average of the Member States which made up the European Union at the time the survey was conducted This average is weighted to reflect the population of each of the Member States. The reader should take into account the fact that in today’s Europe of 28 Member States, the six most populous countries represent 70% of the EU average 1 In the case of a Standard EB (a survey conducted twice a year, in spring and autumn), the survey is designated by its number and by the period in which it was conducted. For example, we talk about EB78, autumn 2012 when referring to Standard Eurobarometer survey 78, conducted in autumn 2012. In the case of a Special Eurobarometer, the survey is designated by the exact name of the wave in which it was conducted, as well as by the month(s) in which the field work was carried out. So, for example, we talk about EB67.1, February 2007. 3 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 1. THE EUROPEAN UNION, ITS POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS Elections to the European Parliament are also a time when indicators of support for the European Union improve: these indicators improved significantly after the 2004 vote, for example, but the improvement was less marked after those of 2009 and 2014. The year 2005, which was marked by the debate over ratification of the Constitutional Treaty was an exception as far as major institutional moments are concerned, because opinions tended to decline: public perception of EU membership and the image of the EU also went down. Trust in the EU, however, remained stable. The impact of the single currency on the main indicators of opinion regarding the European Union is also not unambiguous: o on the eve of the single currency being put into circulation in the first 11 countries of the eurozone, indicators tended to improve (trust in the EU or opinion about a country's membership). o In spring 2002, after the introduction of the euro, the EU's image improved and opinions on membership held firm, but trust in the EU fell. Overall in the period under analysis – since 1997 for trust in the EU and spring 2000 for the image of the EU – there has been a significant fall in these two key indicators of support for the European Union. Europeans blame it more for the economic weaknesses and associate it less with the founding principles, such as democracy and influence in the world. Trust in the institutions has also been strongly shaken by the economic crisis. However, for both indicators the latest measurements (autumn 2014 and September 2015) show an improvement. Trust in the EU is higher than in national institutions (governments and parliaments), but the gap has tended to close since the onset of the crisis. However, despite the crisis Europeans continue to associate the EU with positive themes: o Benefits of membership at the highest level since 1983. o A feeling of both national and European citizenship is also at the highest level. 4 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 1. MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE BENEFITS IT BRINGS Membership of the European Union: above all, a good thing in the eyes of Europeans from 1973 to 2015 The opinions expressed by Europeans on their country’s membership of the European Union2have remained largely positive throughout the whole of the period under review (1973–2015). Similarly, ‘neutral’ opinions, i.e. deeming one’s country’s membership of the Union to be ‘neither a good thing nor a bad thing’, have remained greater than negative opinions (i.e. classifying membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing’). 2 In general, do you think that the fact that (OUR COUNTRY) is part of the European Union is...? 5 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY'S) membership of the European Union is ... ? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad Don't know 65% 63% 59% 60% 62% 60% 59% 57% 56% 55% 59% 60% 58% 56% 53% 58% 55% 53% 53% 53% 54% 52% 50% 24% 23% 23% 21% 20% 18% 13% 25% 14% 22% 21% 23% 21% 22% 14% 14% 9% 13% 14% 12% 16% 9% 7% 7% 8% 58% 27% 27% 25% 26% 24% 25% 24% 22% 22% 21% 14% 14% 13% 13% 11% 7% 7% 8% 11% 12% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 11% EB1 Spring 1974 EB2 Autumn 1974 EB3 Spring 1975 EB4 Autumn 1975 EB5 Spring 1976 EB6 Autumn 1976 EB7 Spring 1977 EB8 Autumn 1977 EB9 Spring 1978 EB10 Autumn 1978 EB11 Spring 1979 EB12 Autumn 1979 EB13 Spring 1980 EB14 Autumn 1980 EB15 Spring 1981 EB16 Autumn 1981 EB17 Spring 1982 EB18 Autumn 1982 EB19 Spring 1983 EB20 Autumn 1983 EB21 Spring 1984 EB22 Autumn 1984 EB23 Spring 1985 EB24 Autumn 1985 EB25 Spring 1986 EB26 Autumn 1986 8% 8% 8% 7% 5% EB0 Autumn 1973 19% 15% 12% 8% 20% 17% 9% 8% 21% 60% 57% 10% 8% 21% 65% 55% 20% 15% 13% 26% 10% 9% 8% 14% 26% 65% 51% 23% 18% 11% 9% 25% 24% 55% 66% 62% EB27 Spring 1987 EB28 Autumn 1987 6% EB29 Spring 1988 5% EB30 Autumn 1988 8% 6% EB31 Spring 1989 8% 7% EB32 Autumn 1989 Oil crisis Fall of the Berlin Wall Single European Act 1st EP elections EU9 3rd EP elections 2nd EP elections EU10 EU12 6 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY'S) membership of the European Union is ... ? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad Don't know 71% 69% 68% 65% 65% 60% 60% 58% 57% 57% 56% 56% 54% 54% 53% 54% 51% 48% 51% 49% 48% 49% 49% 53% 55% 54% 58% 55% 54% 53% 52% 53% 53% 50% 48% 48% 25% 23% 21% 24% 23% 17% EB33 Spring 1990 EB34 Autumn 1990 27% 28% 28% 27% 28% 29% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 28% 27% 29% 27% 25% 28% 27% 28% 12% 13% 15% 17% 15% 15% 9% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 14% 12% 12% 9% 8% 6% 14% 6% 9% 9% 12% 12% 13% 10% 9% 8% 14% 12% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 5% 4% 4% 29% 28% 14% 18% 16% 17% 15% 14% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% EB35 Spring 1991 31% 25% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 31% 29% 18% 14% 8% 7% 6% 6% 26% 27% 17% 13% 10% 6% 29% 28% 24% 17% 12% 7% 28% 28% 19% 19% 8% 28% 50% 47% 31% 30% 26% 50% 49% 48% 46% 28% 55% 54% 53% 50% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% EB36 Autumn 1991 EB37 Spring 1992 EB38 Autumn 1992 EB39 Spring 1993 EB40 Autumn 1993 EB41 Spring 1994 EB42 Autumn 1994 EB43 Spring 1995 EB44 Autumn 1995 EB45 Spring 1996 EB46 Autumn 1996 EB47 Spring 1997 EB48 Autumn 1997 EB49 Spring 1998 EB50 Autumn 1998 EB51 Spring 1999 EB52 Autumn 1999 EB53 Spring 2000 EB54 Autumn 2000 EB55 Spring 2001 EB56 Autumn 2001 EB57 Spring 2002 EB58 Autumn 2002 EB59 Spring 2003 EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 2% EB82.4 EB84.1 December September 2014 2015 Subprimes - Gulf War - Financial crisis Schengen Maastricht Treaty German unification Lisbon Treaty Stability and Growth Pact 4th EP elections Bolkestein Directive 5th EP elections The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Mad cow disease 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Euro Election of Juncker Commission Constitution Failure EU27 EU15 EU25 Greek elections Migrant Crisis EU28 7 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The benefits of membership of the European Union: always a majority over the period, with the highest level ever in 2015 The feeling that one’s country has benefited from being a member of the European Union 3 has remained a majority sentiment throughout the period under review, from spring 1983 to September 2015. In the September 2015 survey it reached as high as 60%, which is the highest level ever achieved since 1983. The response ‘has not benefited’ reached its highest ever level in survey EB74 in autumn 2010 (39%), whilst nevertheless remaining at a much lower level than that of the positive responses ‘has benefited’ (50%). 3 All things considered, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY) has or has not benefited from EU membership? 8 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Generally speaking, do you think that (OUR COUNTRY'S) membership of the European Union is ... ? A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad Don't know 71% 69% 68% 65% 65% 60% 60% 58% 57% 57% 56% 56% 54% 54% 53% 54% 51% 48% 51% 49% 48% 49% 49% 53% 55% 54% 58% 55% 54% 53% 52% 53% 53% 48% 48% 25% 23% 21% 24% 23% 17% EB33 Spring 1990 EB34 Autumn 1990 27% 27% 28% 28% 27% 28% 29% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 28% 27% 29% 27% 25% 28% 27% 28% 12% 13% 13% 15% 17% 15% 15% 12% 9% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 14% 12% 9% 8% 6% 14% 6% 9% 9% 12% 12% 13% 10% 9% 8% 14% 12% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 5% 4% 4% 29% 28% 14% 18% 16% 17% 15% 14% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% EB35 Spring 1991 31% 25% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 31% 29% 18% 17% 14% 8% 7% 6% 6% 26% 17% 12% 7% 29% 28% 24% 10% 6% 28% 28% 19% 19% 8% 28% 50% 47% 31% 30% 26% 50% 49% 48% 46% 28% 55% 54% 53% 50% 50% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% EB36 Autumn 1991 EB37 Spring 1992 EB38 Autumn 1992 EB39 Spring 1993 EB40 Autumn 1993 EB41 Spring 1994 EB42 Autumn 1994 EB43 Spring 1995 EB44 Autumn 1995 EB45 Spring 1996 EB46 Autumn 1996 EB47 Spring 1997 EB48 Autumn 1997 EB49 Spring 1998 EB50 Autumn 1998 EB51 Spring 1999 EB52 Autumn 1999 EB53 Spring 2000 EB54 Autumn 2000 EB55 Spring 2001 EB56 Autumn 2001 EB57 Spring 2002 EB58 Autumn 2002 EB59 Spring 2003 EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 2% EB82.4 EB84.1 December September 2014 2015 Subprimes - Gulf War - Financial crisis Schengen Maastricht Treaty German unification Lisbon Treaty Stability and Growth Pact 4th EP elections Bolkestein Directive 5th EP elections The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Mad cow disease 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Euro Election of Juncker Commission Constitution Failure EU27 EU15 EU25 Greek elections Migrant Crisis EU28 9 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Taking everything into consideration, would you say that (OUR COUNTRY) has on balance benefited or not from being a member of the European Union? Benefited Not benefited Don't know 59% 52% 49% 45% 44% 42% 46% 46% 47% 47% 32% 32% 44% 51% 53% 50% 55% 54% 52% 60% 58% 54% 54% 56% 56% 57% 53% 50% 50% 46% 45% 52% 47% 41% 39% 37% 36% 34% 35% 32% 31% 29% 31% 34% 22% 21% 21% 22% 30% 27% 27% 21% 54% 25% 23% 21% 20% 21% 28% 29% 22% 21% 35% 35% 36% 33% 33% 37% 37% 35% 34% 30% 31% 31% 31% 31% 13% 13% 12% 31% 29% 26% 23% 21% 20% 18% 15% 12% EB45 Spring 1996 EB46 Autumn 1996 EB47 Spring 1997 EB48 Autumn 1997 EB49 Spring 1998 EB50 Autumn 1998 EB51 Spring 1999 EB52 Autumn 1999 EB53 Spring 2000 EB54 Autumn 2000 EB55 Spring 2001 EB56 Autumn 2001 EB57 Spring 2002 EB58 Autumn 2002 EB59 Spring 2003 EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 12% EB63 Spring 2005 12% EB64 Autumn 2005 12% EB65 Spring 2006 12% EB66 Autumn 2006 11% EB67 Spring 2007 13% EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 Subprimes EB72 Autumn 2009 12% EB73 Spring 2010 11% 11% EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 9% 9% EB79.5 June 2013 EB84.1 September 2015 Effects of the Crisis Mad cow disease The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Stability and Growth Pact Migrant Crisis Bolkestein Directive 5th EP elections Euro 7th EP elections 6th EP elections 8th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission Constitution Failure EU27 EU25 Greek elections EU28 10 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 2. TRUST IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Europeans’ faith in the European Union was tested between autumn 1997 and spring 2015. After having been in the majority since autumn 2004 and the enlargement to 25 Member States, faith in the EU has gone back into the minority since EB73 in spring 2010. However, having stabilised at its lowest level in spring and autumn 2013, and in spring 2014 (EB81), it recovered slightly in the autumn 2014 survey (37% against 50% ‘tend not to trust’) and the spring 2015 survey (40% against 46%), while remaining in the minority. I would like to ask you a question about how much trust you have in certain institutions. For each of the following institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The European Union Tend to trust Tend not to trust Don't know 57% 60% 53% 50% 46% 41% 40% 42% 42% 44% 45% 43% 43% 48% 37% 39% 21% EB51 Spring 1999 38% 41% 41% 39% 41% EB55 Spring 2001 EB56 Autumn 2001 41% 36% 36% 17% 18% 17% 17% 14% EB57 Spring 2002 EB59 Spring 2003 EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 13% EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 12% EB64 Autumn 2005 13% EB65 Spring 2006 Bolkestein Directive 16% 14% 47% 47% 47% 60% 57% 55% 58% 56% 45% 50% 37% 41% 40% 42% 43% 41% 34% 31% 36% Euro 14% 11% EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 12% EB70 Autumn 2008 12% EB71 Spring 2009 12% EB72 Autumn 2009 33% 31% 31% 46% 40% 31% 11% 12% EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 12% EB75 Spring 2011 11% EB76 Autumn 2011 9% 10% 9% EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79 Spring 2013 11% EB80 Autumn 2013 13% 13% 14% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Subprimes Constitution Failure 5th EP elections 48% 32% 20% 15% EB48 Autumn 1997 47% 45% 32% 22% 50% 41% 40% 37% 44% 48% Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty 8th EP elections 6th EP elections 7th EP elections EU25 EU27 EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 11 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 3. THE IMAGE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND WHAT IT MEANS TO EUROPEANS The image of the European Union remains predominantly positive but has waned over time The image of the European Union among Europeans 4 has changed since spring 2000. Positive opinions remained clearly in the majority until autumn 2009 (EB72), before starting to decline in spring 2010 (EB73). Since autumn 2010 (EB74), they have remained below 42% and have been surpassed several times by neutral opinions (people saying that they have a ‘neutral’ image). However, the share of respondents declaring a positive image of the EU has progressed steadily since autumn 2013, increasing from 31% to 41% in spring 2015. Over the whole of the period under review, positive opinions have exceeded negative ones, and the neutral image has been increasing since 2000. 4 In general, is your image of the EU very positive, quite positive, neutral, quite negative or very negative? 12 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION In general, does the EU conjure up for you a very positive, fairly positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image? Total 'Positive' Neutral Total 'Negative' Don't know 52% 49% 43% 49% 50% 47% 50% 47% 42% 48% 48% 46% 44% 44% 45% 49% 45% 42% 40% 43% 31% 33% 31% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 34% 32% 34% 36% 34% 31% 36% 35% 40% 37% 38% 39% 31% 30% 31% 26% 28% 19% 21% 18% 17% 13% 18% 18% 16% 14% 18% 20% 14% 16% 7% EB53 Spring 2000 8% EB55 Spring 2001 7% EB57 Spring 2002 5% EB58 Autumn 2002 5% EB59 Spring 2003 5% EB60 Autumn 2003 4% EB61 Spring 2004 15% 17% 16% 21% 41% 39% 38% 38% 31% 29% 28% 24% 37% 35% 22% 25% 19% 15% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 Failure 39% 15% 2% EB78 Autumn 2012 1% EB79.5 June 2013 2% 2% 2% 2% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Subprimes Euro 19% 20% 2% Constitution 41% 34% 38% 35% 33% 39% 41% Bolkestein Directive Lisbon Treaty 6th EP elections 8th EP elections 7th EP elections EU27 EU28 Migrant Crisis Election of Juncker Commission EU25 13 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION What the European Union means: a trio of positive dimensions heads people's thinking Throughout the survey period (from spring 2002 (EB57) to autumn 2014 (EB82)), 'freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU' was the principle which Europeans most commonly associated with the European Union. Next came the euro, with the exception of the survey conducted in June 2013 (EB79.5), when it was briefly overtaken by peace. Peace occupied third place in most of the surveys analysed. The concepts most frequently associated with the EU are therefore positive. However, fourth and fifth positions are occupied by negative concepts: bureaucracy and wasting money. These have been gradually increasing since 2002. What does the European Union mean to you personally? Freedom to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU 53% 50% 49% 52% 50% 50% 38% 32% 39% 32% 24% 19% 23% 22% 19% 33% 21% 39% 26% 21% 46% 45% 42% 40% 37% 35% 33% 21% 23% 34% 27% 19% 20% 18% 19% 17% 45% 45% 40% 41% 38% 37% 33% 28% 28% 25% 20% 19% Euro 6th EP elections 41% 37% 42% 43% 49% 44% 39% 35% 35% 24% 21% 20% 23% 25% 24% 22% 24% 21% 21% 23% 21% 21% 27% 27% 26% 24% 23% EB77 Spring 2012 23% EB78 Autumn 2012 29% 26% 23% 35% 29% 27% 25% 24% 24% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 27% 26% 25% 23% 25% 22% 21% EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis Bolkestein Directive 43% 32% EB57 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB67 EB69 EB70 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 Spring 2002 Autumn 2004 Spring 2005 Autumn 2005 Spring 2006 Spring 2007 Spring 2008 Autumn 2008 Spring 2009 Autumn 2009 Spring 2010 Autumn 2010 Spring 2011 Autumn 2011 Constitution Failure Waste of money 50% 22% 22% Bureaucracy 49% 44% 37% Peace 52% 44% 36% Euro EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Subprimes Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty EU28 7th EP elections EU25 8th EP elections EU27 Election of Juncker Commission (TICK AS MANY CHOICES AS APPLY) 14 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 4. TRUST IN THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS The European institutions have suffered a gradual erosion of trust, closely linked to the onset of the international economic crisis. Europeans’ faith in the European institutions fell significantly between autumn 2004 (EB62)5 and autumn 2015 (EB82). Whilst people generally trusted most of the institutions, this pattern started to reverse starting in autumn 2011 (EB76). Broadly positive in autumn 2004 (57% in EB62 of autumn 2004), there was a gradual reduction in the level of faith in the European Parliament until it fell behind starting in autumn 2011 (in EB76, 41% trusted the EP as opposed to 45% who did not). It should be noted that the round of surveys conducted in autumn 2011 showed up a sharp decline in all the indicators. Trust in the EP briefly held the upper hand in the June 2013 (48% as against 43%) and spring 2015 (43% as against 41%) surveys. In the most recent survey (September 2015), 'trust' is again below 'no trust' (40% as against 45%). 5 For each of the following European institutions, please state if you trust them or not. 15 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The European Parliament - Tend to trust 57% 54% 56% 52% 31% 29% 52% 51% 52% 30% 32% 26% 17% EB61 Spring 2004 16% EB62 Autumn 2004 18% EB63 Spring 2005 Constitution Failure 52% 51% 48% 19% 16% EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 Bolkestein Directive 31% 28% 16% EB66 Autumn 2006 16% EB67 Spring 2007 Don't know 55% 36% 34% Tend not to trust 27% 18% EB68 Autumn 2007 50% 48% 37% 48% 37% 33% EB69 Spring 2008 18% 16% EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 Subprimes 17% EB72 Autumn 2009 45% 41% 38% 27% 21% 45% 15% EB73 Spring 2010 15% EB74 Autumn 2010 17% 14% EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 46% 40% 14% EB77 Spring 2012 45% 44% 48% 48% 43% 43% 42% 41% 40% 15% 15% 16% 15% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 EB84.1 September 2015 37% 11% EB78 Autumn 2012 13% 9% EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 The Ukrainian Crisis 7th EP elections 8th EP elections Migrant Crisis Greek elections 6th EP elections EU27 45% 43% 39% Effects of the Crisis Lisbon Treaty 48% EU28 Election of Juncker Commission EU25 16 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION There was a similar trend for faith in the European Commission. The level of trust in this institution steadily fell until it lagged behind starting in autumn 2011 (43% for 'no trust' in EB76, with 36% for 'trust'). After that, mistrust was dominant until the spring 2014 survey (38% as against 42%). The last spring 2015 survey (EB83) showed trust and mistrust as being equal (40% for each). For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The European Commission - Tend to trust 52% 48% 52% 46% 46% 47% Tend not to trust Don't know 50% 48% 47% 47% 44% 46% 45% 44% 43% 46% 44% 40% 33% 31% 29% 29% 27% 23% 21% 34% 23% 21% 24% 31% 27% 26% 27% 30% 23% 21% 24% 22% 26% 36% 36% 32% 36% 22% 19% 20% 36% 37% 23% 21% EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 Constitution Failure EB65 Spring 2006 Bolkestein Directive EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 43% 47% 46% 42% 35% 32% 22% 18% 21% EB61 Spring 2004 40% 44% EB77 Spring 2012 16% EB78 Autumn 2012 18% 40% 38% 20% 20% EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 13% EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 Subprimes The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Lisbon Treaty Migrant Crisis 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections EU27 EU28 Election of Juncker Commission EU25 17 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Faith in the Council of the European Union also diminished and became the lesserheld view starting in autumn 2011 (EB76). However, people's faith showed an upturn after autumn 2012, reaching 42% the last time this was recorded, in June 2013 (the same figure as for mistrust). The proportion of no replies is high but has been steadily falling since autumn 2011 (16% in EB79.5, June 2013). For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it - The Council of the European Union Tend to trust 47% 45% 42% 40% 31% 29% 40% 30% 29% 43% 30% 42% 44% 31% 29% Tend not to trust 43% 29% 26% 27% 28% 26% 25% 44% 41% 39% 29% 31% 27% 43% 42% 36% 36% 32% 32% 35% 34% 28% 26% 41% 40% 34% 31% 27% 29% 42% Don't know 29% 26% 27% 24% 21% 16% EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB72 Autumn 2009 Subprimes EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 7th EP elections 6th EP elections EU27 EU28 Constitution Failure EU25 18 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Faith in the European Central Bank has followed the same pattern. This is the institution with the highest level of mistrust, although this has been in steady decline since autumn 2013 (EB80). For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The European Central Bank- Tend to trust Tend not to trust Don't know 49% 53% 50% 49% 47% 46% 50% 47% 46% 44% 48% 41% 39% 33% 27% 26% 27% 25% 27% 26% 28% 26% 28% 25% 27% 38% 36% 37% 48% 46% 45% 34% 35% 21% 20% 20% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 38% 35% 34% 33% 26% 25% 37% 30% 29% 49% 40% 44% 44% 51% 49% 46% 43% 31% 26% 22% 24% 24% 22% 23% 23% 20% 20% 22% 18% 16% 17% 14% 11% EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 Subprimes Constitution Failure EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis EB80 Autumn 2013 The Ukrainian Crisis Bolkestein Directive Migrant Crisis 6th EP elections Lisbon Treaty EU25 EU27 7th EP elections 8th EP elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 19 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The Court of Justice of the European Union stands out from the other institutions: 'trust' has remained comfortably ahead throughout the period in question (from autumn 2004 (EB62) to June 2013 (EB79.5)). However, mistrust made great strides starting in spring 2010 (EB73), reaching 36% in spring 2012 (EB77). It has since fallen back slightly but is over 30%. For each of the following European bodies, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. - The Court of Justice of the European Union- Tend to trust Tend not to trust Don't know 57% 57% 52% 52% 52% 48% 24% 22% 24% 21% EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 24% 23% EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 50% 50% 46% 29% 27% 25% 51% 23% 24% 25% 25% EB65 Spring 2006 28% 36% 18% EB66 Autumn 2006 21% 22% EB68 Autumn 2007 EB73 Spring 2010 49% 34% 32% 17% 11% EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis Subprimes Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 6th EP elections 7th EP elections Constitution Failure EU25 EU27 EU28 20 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 5. KNOWLEDGE OF HOW THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS WORK A majority of Europeans seem to know about some of the main workings of the EU. When asked a 'true/false' quiz question6 on their knowledge of how the European institutions work, Europeans showed that they are quite well informed, with most choosing the correct answer to the questions posed. Knowledge of the principle of the election of Members of the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage in every Member State has been dominant since autumn 2002 (EB58). It has shown an increase at every European election. The rise was particularly marked before the most recent elections, in May 2014 (71%, an increase of 17 percentage points), after which there was a fall to 59% at the time of the last survey, in September 2015. 6 For each of the following statements about the EU, please state if you think they are true or false. 21 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - The members of the European Parliament are directly elected by the citizens of each Member State- True (correct answer) False (wrong answer) Don't know 71% 62% 59% 58% 50% 50% 50% 57% 56% 58% 53% 52% 62% 59% 57% 52% 52% 30% 30% 54% 49% 48% 45% 43% 36% 35% 30% 29% 30% 29% 31% 31% 24% 24% 21% 18% 20% 20% 19% 21% 20% 21% 23% 21% 26% 27% 28% 31% 29% 26% 23% 18% 17% 18% 17% 18% 14% 17% 22% 21% 16% 17% 15% EB82.4 December 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 EB84.1 September 2015 15% 12% 14% EB58 Autumn 2002 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 EB71.1 Autumn Jan. - Feb. 2007 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 Subprimes Constitution Failure Bolkestein Directive EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 Effects of the Crisis The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty 7th EP elections 6th EP elections EU25 EB74 Autumn 2010 Migrant Crisis Greek elections 8th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 22 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The majority of Europeans know that the Member States do not all have the same number of MEPs. After rising between January-February 2009 (EB71.1) and January-February 2010 (EB73.1) (an increase of 8 points, from 48% to 56%), Europeans' level of knowledge about the number of MEPs from each Member State has continued to rise steadily. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - Each Member State has the same number of Members of the European Parliament True (wrong answer) 56% 55% 24% 24% False (correct answer) 56% Don't know 58% 58% 59% 23% 22% 23% 48% 32% 23% 19% 20% 20% 21% EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. 2009 EB73.1 Jan. - Feb. 2010 EB76 Autumn 2011 21% 20% EB77.4 June 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB82.4 December 2014 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis 7th EP elections 8th EP elections EU28 18% EB84.1 September 2015 Migrant Crisis Greek elections Election of Juncker Commission 23 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION In terms of the principle of joint agreement between the European Parliament and the Member States regarding determining the budget of the EU, here again there is a prevalence of correct responses throughout the period in which the question was asked, although there was no increase. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - The EU's budget is determined jointly by the European Parliament and the Member StatesTrue (correct answer) 60% False (wrong answer) 61% 59% 54% Don't know 57% 56% 28% 27% 54% 34% 30% 28% 25% 21% 18% 10% EB68 Autumn 2007 16% EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. 2009 15% 18% 12% EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB82.4 December 2014 Effects of the Crisis The Ukrainian Crisis 17% EB84.1 September 2015 Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Greek elections 7th EP elections 8th EP elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 24 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Broadly speaking, a majority of people are aware of the principle of agreement between the European Parliament and the Member States on European directives and regulations: this awareness crept up from January-February 2009 (EB71.1) to autumn 2011 (59%), and has remained at around 60% since. For each of the following statements about the EU could you please tell me whether you think it is true or false. - At the EU level, European laws (directives and regulations) have to be agreed jointly by the European Parliament and the Member States True (correct answer) 59% False (wrong answer) Don't know 62% 61% 60% 60% 54% 31% 22% 23% 22% 19% EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. 2009 EB76 Autumn 2011 19% 19% 19% EB77.4 June 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB82.4 December 2014 Effects of the Crisis The Ukrainian Crisis 7th EP elections 21% 17% 17% 16% 8th EP elections EB84.1 September 2015 Migrant Crisis Greek elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 25 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 6. TRUST IN NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS A large majority of Europeans do not trust their national government, and trust fell overall between 2004 and 2015. Having reached its lowest level in autumn 2013 (23% in EB80), this trust in the national government has improved slightly since, reaching 31% in the autumn 2015 survey. For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. The (NATIONALITY) Government - % EU Tend to trust 61% 30% 34% 31% 6% 31% 35% 62% 53% 59% 62% 61% 41% 30% 28% 6% 5% 5% 72% 68% 28% 27% 25% 23% 5% 5% 4% 5% 68% 65% 63% 27% 29% 31% 5% 6% 6% 56% 38% 24% Autumn 2009 Spring 2010 Autumn 2010 Spring 2011 Autumn 2011 Spring 2012 Autumn 2012 Spring 2013 Autumn 2013 Spring 2014 Autumn 2014 Spring 2015 6% Spring 2009 5% Jan.-Feb. 2009 5% 32% Autumn 2008 6% 32% Spring 2008 5% 29% 71% 67% Autumn 2007 6% 29% 70% 63% Spring 2007 7% 67% Nov.-Dec. 2006 6% 34% 66% Autumn 2006 7% 32% 65% Spring 2006 8% 34% 31% 63% Autumn 2005 6% 62% Spring 2005 7% 59% Autumn 2004 5% 62% Don't know Spring 2004 9% 64% 60% Tend not to trust EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 Subprimes The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Constitution Failure Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU25 Migrant Crisis EU28 26 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Similarly, only a minority of Europeans trust their national Parliament. This trust in the national Parliament follows the same trends as trust in the national government: it fell slightly overall between 2004 and 2015, reaching its lowest level in autumn 2013 (25% in EB80). It has, however, rallied recently, to 31% in spring 2015. In each of the surveys analysed, trust in the national Parliament very slightly exceeded trust in the national Government. However, trust in national institutions is lower than trust in the European Union, even though the gap has tended to reduce since the start of the economic crisis. For each of the following media and institutions, please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it. The (NATIONALITY) Parliament - % EU Tend to trust 54% 35% 55% 38% 57% 35% 56% 35% 54% 38% 58% 61% 50% 33% 56% 58% 58% 35% 34% 34% Tend not to trust 55% 36% 43% Don't know 61% 63% 62% 62% 60% 32% 30% 31% 31% 33% 7% 7% 7% 7% 66% 66% 66% 68% 69% 27% 28% 28% 26% 25% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 65% 62% 62% 28% 30% 31% 7% 8% 7% 31% 11% 9% Autumn 2008 Jan.-Feb. 2009 Spring 2009 Autumn 2009 Spring 2010 Autumn 2010 Spring 2011 Autumn 2011 Spring 2012 Autumn 2012 Spring 2013 Autumn 2013 Spring 2014 Autumn 2014 Spring 2015 7% Spring 2008 9% Autumn 2007 8% Spring 2007 8% Nov.-Dec. 2006 7% Autumn 2006 8% Spring 2006 9% Autumn 2005 8% Spring 2005 9% Autumn 2004 8% Spring 2004 7% EB61 EB62 EB63 EB64 EB65 EB66 EB66.3 EB67 EB68 EB69 EB70 EB71.1 EB71 EB72 EB73 EB74 EB75 EB76 EB77 EB78 EB79 EB80 EB81 EB82 EB83 Subprimes The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive Constitution Failure EU25 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 27 DESK RESEARCH II. TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION DEMOCRACY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION THE MAIN FINDINGS In 2002, one European in five believed that their opinion mattered in the EU. In 2015, it was nearly two in five. Over the same period, the proportion of those believing that their opinion did not matter fell from almost seven in ten in 2002 to fewer than six in ten in 2015. In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of European citizens believe that their opinion matters in their country, a percentage that has considerably increased since 2008. A little more than six out of ten Europeans believe that their country’s opinion matters in the EU, but the number of people who think the opposite has increased since 2002. The share of people feeling they are European citizens remained stable at above 50 per cent, without being affected by the European Union’s own issues and fluctuations in the economic and political climate. There were no significant changes in this indicator between 1992 and 2015. National identity was at its highest levels in the mid-1990s, on the eve of the introduction of the euro, and again in spring 2010 in the midst of the debt crisis engulfing several Member States. Feelings of European citizenship increased following the adoption of the euro and even in the midst of the economic crisis, in particular in 2012, and reached its highest point in 2015. Feelings of belonging to the European Union split public opinion in two over the period under review: It increased during the slightly contentious debate on the ratification of the Constitutional Treaty, which appeared to have had the effect of making the European Union a more tangible reality in the eyes of Europeans. The 2007 enlargement also had a positive effect on this feeling. It then dropped off, as a result of the financial and debt crisis in the Member States, which also affected all the other indicators, before bouncing back and exceeding 50 per cent in 2015. 28 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Nevertheless, a clear majority of Europeans share the feeling that what unites them in the EU is more important than what divides them. They also identify as forcefully as ever, in spite of the crisis, several European Union identity markers, and in particular democratic values and the euro, which prove to be the principal elements constituting European identity. The feeling of European citizenship remains strong in spite of the turmoil experienced by the European Union in recent years. 29 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 1. THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN CITIZENS Europeans have the increasingly strong conviction that their voice counts in their own country Tested between spring 2008 (EB69) and the end of 2015 (EB84.1), more than half of Europeans believed that their opinion mattered in their own country 7 with two exceptions: autumn 2008 (48% ‘do not agree’, against 46% ‘agree’) and autumn 2013 (50% against 47%), when a small majority of Europeans believed that their opinion mattered in their own countries. Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. - My voice counts in (OUR COUNTRY)- Tend to agree Tend to disagree Don't know 63% 58% 56% 48% 48% 45% 46% 51% 52% 43% 43% 52% 45% 51% 50% 46% 47% EB69 Spring 2008 6% EB70 Autumn 2008 6% EB71 Spring 2009 6% EB73 Spring 2010 5% EB74 Autumn 2010 58% 57% 39% 38% 50% 47% 42% 40% 38% 7% 55% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% EB76.4 December 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82.4 December 2014 35% 5% EB83 Spring 2015 2% EB84.1 September 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Migrant Crisis 7th EP elections 8th EP elections Greek elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 7 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - My opinion matters in (OUR COUNTRY) - 30 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The majority of Europeans believe that their opinion does not matter in the EU. Less than half of Europeans consulted between the beginning of 2002 (EB56.3 January-February 2002) and September 2015 (EB84.1) believed that their opinion mattered in the European Union;8 at no point in the period did this proportion exceed 50%. As a trend, this feeling has gained traction since 2002, rising from 21% in EB56.3 in 2002 to 39% in September 2015 (EB84.1). This conviction spiked in surveys taken in the wake of European elections: in 2004 (+9 points, to 39% in EB62), in 2009 (+8, to 38% in EB71), and in 2014 (+13 to 42% in EB81). 9 8 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - My opinion matters in the EU 9 Survey EB61 in spring 2004 was conducted prior to the European elections of 2004. Surveys EB71 in spring 2009, and EB81 in spring 2014 were conducted on the day after the European elections. 31 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. - My voice counts in the EU Tend to agree 68% Tend to disagree Don't know 65% 59% 55% 52% 57% 54% 53% 62% 61% 61% 53% 66% 64% 57% 57% 55% 63% 57% 55% 56% 52% 42% 39% 38% 36% 34% 39% 38% 34% 35% 34% 30% 30% 31% 33% 30% 31% 30% 31% 53% 50% 41% 42% 39% 29% 26% 21% 15% 11% 10% EB56.3 Jan. Fév. 2002 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 10% 9% EB63 Spring 2005 7% EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 9% EB66 Autumn 2006 12% 10% 9% 9% EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 9% EB71 Spring 2009 Subprimes 11% EB73 Spring 2010 10% EB74 Autumn 2010 8% EB75 Spring 2011 9% 6% EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 5% 4% EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis 6% 6% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82.4 December 2014 5% EB83 Spring 2015 Migrant Crisis Bolkestein Directive 6th EP elections EB84.1 September 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Euro 8% 5% Greek elections 8th EP elections 7th EP elections Constitution Failure EU25 EU27 EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 32 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION More than six out of ten Europeans believe that their country’s opinion matters in the EU Considerably less than half of Europeans consulted between early 2002 (EB56.3) and September 2015 (EB84.1) believed that their country's opinion mattered in the European Union.10 Despite minor fluctuations, this proportion remained at or above 60% at all times. However, the proportion of people who do not agree with this opinion is trending upwards, from 20% in EB56.3 in January-February 2002, to 34% in September 2015 (EB84.1). Please tell me for each statement, whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree. - (OUR COUNTRY)'s voice counts in the European Union Tend to agree 68% 63% 63% Don't know 66% 61% 31% 26% Tend to disagree 24% 26% 8% 8% 61% 29% 60% 61% 62% 31% 30% 29% 9% 9% 9% 65% 31% 62% 61% 34% 34% 4% 5% EB79.5 June 2013 EB84.1 September 2015 20% 17% 11% 8% 10% 4% EB56.3 Jan. - Feb. 2002 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 Subprimes Effects of the Crisis Bolkestein Directive Euro Lisbon Treaty 6th EP elections EB77.4 June 2012 The Ukrainian Crisis Greek elections Migrant Crisis 7th EP elections 8th EP elections EU25 EU27 Constitution Failure EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 10 To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - (OUR COUNTRY’S) opinion matters in the EU - 33 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 2. A FEELING OF EUROPEAN CITIZENSHIP WHICH SURVIVES THE CRISIS In most of the surveys analysed, the majority of Europeans say that they see themselves as national and European (in proportions of between 40% and 50%), except in the most recent survey, which saw the proportion seeing themselves as European rise to 52%. A significant proportion of people see themselves solely as national, a view held by the majority between autumn 1996 and spring 1998, in autumn 1999 and in spring 2010. Do you see yourself as …? (NATIONALITY) only (NATIONALITY) and European European and (NATIONALITY) European only Don't know 52% 48% 45% 46% 45% 45% 40% 40% 38% 49% 46% 40% 44% 45% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41% 47% 44% 41% 38% 38% 37% 49% 48% 38% 40% 40% 46% 47% 41% 41% 48% 46% 49% 49% 38% 38% 46% 47% 47% 44% 43% 41% 41% 42% 39% 39% 38% 33% 10% 4% EB37 Spring 1992 6% 7% 4% 4% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% EB40 Autumn 1993 EB42 Autumn 1994 EB43 Spring 1995 EB46 Autumn 1996 4% EB47 Spring 1997 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% EB49 Spring 1998 EB50 Autumn 1998 8% 6% 4% 3% EB52 Autumn 1999 3% EB53 Spring 2000 7% 4% 3% 7% 6% 4% 3% EB54 Autumn 2000 3% EB56 Autumn 2001 7% 8% 3% EB57 Spring 2002 7% 3% EB58 Autumn 2002 3% EB59 Spring 2003 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 8% 7% 3% 2% 7% 4% 2% 3… 2% EB64 EB67.1 Autumn February 2005 2007 EB73 Spring 2010 8% 6% 4% 1% 3… 5th EP elections 4th EP elections Mad cow disease 3% 6% 5% 4% 2% EB80 Autumn 2013 2% 1% EB83 Spring 2015 Effects of the Crisis Constitution Failure Stability and Growth Pact 3% 7% 4% EB76.4 EB77.4 EB78.2 EB79.5 December June Nov.-Dec. June 2011 2012 2012 2013 Bolkestein Directive Maastricht Treaty 2% 7% 3% Migrant Crisis 7th EP elections The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Euro 6th EP elections 8th EP elections Subprimes EU15 EU25 EU27 EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 34 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 3. AN ENDURING ATTACHMENT TO THE EUROPEAN UNION The attachment of Europeans to their country at around 90% remains very strong and stable over time (around 90% between EB56.3 in January-February 2002 and EB84.1 in September 2015). People may feel different levels of attachment to their village, town or city, to their region, to their country or to the Eu ropean Union. Please tell me how attached you feel to… - (OUR COUNTRY) Total 'Attached' 89% 89% 90% 91% 91% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% EB56.3 Jan. - Feb. 2002 EB58 Autumn 2002 EB65 Spring 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 Total 'Not attached' 93% 91% 91% 91% 91% 90% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% EB73.3 March 2010 EB77 Spring 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB84.1 September 2015 Effects of the Crisis Subprimes Euro The Ukrainian Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive Constitution Failure Don't know 8th EP elections Greek elections 7th EP elections EU27 EU28 Election of Juncker Commission 35 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Europeans are clearly more divided when it comes to their attachment to the European Union: after being in the majority between EB65 in spring 2006 and EB73.3 in March 2010, it once again dipped below 50% between EB77 in spring 2012 to autumn 2014. This attachment then bounced back, returning to being a majority opinion in September 2015 (EB84.1). Please tell me how attached you feel to… - The European Union - Total 'Attached' 56% 52% 50% 47% 45% 40% 53% 44% 49% 48% Total 'Not attached' 53% 45% 52% 46% Don't know 50% 48% 52% 52% 46% 45% 51% 47% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% EB56.3 Jan. - Feb. 2002 EB58 Autumn 2002 EB65 Spring 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB73.3 March 2010 EB77 Spring 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB84.1 September 2015 Constitution Failure Euro Effects of the Crisis Subprimes The Ukrainian Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 7th EP elections 6th EP elections EU27 Greek elections 8th EP elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission EU25 36 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 4. THE COMPONENTS OF AN EU IDENTITY Identity markers which persist despite the crisis 'The values of democracy and freedom' were identified by respondents as the main element underpinning the EU's identity in their eyes11 (47% in EB84.1 of September 2015). The euro came in second place (39% in September 2015). This was followed by culture (30%) and history (27%). Other considerations are cited by less than a fifth of Europeans. The European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS) - % EU The values of democracy and freedom The single currency, the euro Culture History Geography The successes of the European economy The EU motto: "Unity in diversity" The European flag The European anthem 47% 45% 49% 42% 40% 43% 40% 40% 39% 37% 27% 23% 24% 26% 20% 22% 28% 27% 23% 24% 26% 20% 21% 17% 15% 19% 27% 19% 18% 15% 13% 12% 30% 13% 13% 10% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% Autumn 2008 June 2012 June 2013 Nov.-Dec. 2014 Sept. 2015 EB70 EB77.4 EB79.5 EB82.4 EB84.1 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Greek elections 8th EP elections Migrant Crisis 7th EP elections EU28 Election of Juncker Commission (MAXIMUM 3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES) 11 European identity can be composed of several elements. In your opinion, which of the following are the most important elements that go to make up the European identity? (MAXIMUM 3 POSSIBLE RESPONSES) 37 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Some three quarters of Europeans agree with the following statement regarding the building of Europe: ‘what unites the citizens of the various countries is more important than what divides them’. This has been the case on each occasion when the question was asked, in autumn 2008 (EB70), autumn 2009 (EB72), June 2013 (EB79.5) and September 2015 (EB84.1). Can you tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: - What brings the citizens of the different EU Member States together is more important than what separates them. Don't know Totally disagree 11% 3% Total 'Disagree': 17% Total 'Disagree': 16% 14% Tend to disagree Tend to agree Totally agree 9% 8% 3% 5% 13% Total 'Disagree': 20% 7% 5% Total 'Disagree': 21% 16% 15% 48% 50% Total 'Agree': 75% Total 'Agree': 72% 22% EB70 Autumn 2008 47% 50% Total 'Agree': 72% 27% EB72 Autumn 2009 Total 'Agree': 72% 25% 22% EB79.5 June 2013 EB84.1 September 2015 38 DESK RESEARCH III. TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION THE ECONOMY IN THE EU THE MAIN FINDINGS The economic crisis has had a major impact on how Europeans perceive the economic situation in their countries and in the EU: Both are currently perceived as bad, although this perception has improved in recent surveys. While prior to the crisis Europeans perceived their national economies to be in worse shape than the EU economy, this has been reversed due to the debt crisis. The EU therefore no longer seems to be a reassuring point of reference in the crisis. In terms of short-term expectations, the most recent survey from spring 2015 (EB83) brings the first signs of optimism regarding the various aspects that were examined (national and European economic situation, national employment situation). Over the whole period under review, the predominant sentiment was that things would not change. Other signs of tension: Although European public opinion remains largely in favour of coordinated responses to deal with the crisis, an increasing proportion of Europeans would like to see individual measures taken. Today, the proportion of Europeans who want to wait until all the Member States are ready before stepping up the development of a common European policy is significantly higher than the proportion who want to do it without waiting until the other Member States are ready. Nonetheless, the fact that Europeans continue to view the EU as the most credible actor to act effectively in response to the crisis is an encouraging sign. The keys to strengthening economic performance are training and innovation, but the crisis has brought other issues to light, such as reducing public debts, and has undermined investment strategies. Europeans' expectations of the EU are mainly focused on the economy: they would like the European budget to be allocated, first and foremost, to social affairs, employment and economic growth. 39 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 1. THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SITUATION AND THAT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Judgments about the European economy and about the national economy veered wildly towards negative in 2008, after the onset of the economic crisis. The judgments of Europeans about the economic situation of the European Union12, which were positive and on an upward trend from November 2004 (EB62.1) until autumn 2007 (EB68) became negative from autumn 2008 (EB70). They reached their lowest level in autumn 2011 (EB76), right in the midst of the debt crisis (18%). Since then, they have grown almost continuously, reaching 37% in spring 2015 (EB83). Over the same period, negative judgments have fallen from 77% in autumn 2011 to 51% in spring 2015. How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The situation of the European economy Total 'Good' Total 'Bad' Don't know 77% 63% 62% 58% 49% 50% 37% 36% 58% 58% 72% 65% 61% 59% 56% 51% 37% 33% 28% 27% 15% 15% 15% 14% 9% EB63 Spring 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB68 Autumn 2007 30% 30% 24% EB62.1 Nov. 2004 75% 53% 31% 13% 75% 70% 68% EB70 Autumn 2008 9% EB71 Spring 2009 Lisbon Treaty 28% 26% 22% 9% EB72 Autumn 2009 8% EB73 Spring 2010 10% EB74 Autumn 2010 18% 19% 19% 5% 6% 6% EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 31% 30% 21% 13% 9% EB75 Spring 2011 7% EB79 Spring 2013 11% 12% EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 7% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Constitution Failure Migrant Crisis Subprimes 7th EP elections Bolkestein Directive 8th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 12 How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? Situation in (OUR COUNTRY'S) economy/Situation in the European economy/Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY). 40 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The judgments of Europeans about the situation of the economy in their country follow the same trend: increase from 2004 to 2007, then rapid deterioration in 2008. The main difference in the perception of the European economy was that the judgments were negative in 2004 and remained negative throughout the period under review, with the exception of spring 2007 (52% of the total ‘good’ against 44% in EB67). Since 2009, these judgments have gradually improved, rising from 21% in spring 2009 (EB72) to 38% in spring 2015 (EB83). How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The situation of the (NATIONALITY) economy Total 'Good' 78% 75% Total 'Bad' 77% 70% 69% 62% Don't know 68% 71% 71% 72% 72% 68% 63% 61% 63% 59% 56% 52% 50% 44% 41% 48% 46% 36% 35% 49% 38% 29% 28% 21% 4% EB62.1 November 2004 23% 22% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% EB63 Spring 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 Subprimes Constitution Failure 31% 2% EB75 Spring 2011 31% 28% 27% 27% 26% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB79 Spring 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB78 Autumn 2012 Effects of the Crisis 34% 34% 3% 3% 3% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty 8th EP elections 7th EP elections Bolkestein Directive Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 41 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The assessment of the employment situation at national level has seen a similar change over the period, with negative judgments a clear majority, an improvement in 2007 and a significant deterioration in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. Since then, judgments have improved slightly, whilst still remaining broadly negative. How would you judge the current situation in each of the following? - The employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) Total 'Good' Total 'Bad' 85% 76% 83% 79% 77% Don't know 78% 77% 74% 74% 70% 79% 80% 77% 74% 73% 69% 69% 62% 36% 22% 24% 28% 27% 28% 24% 20% 19% 13% 15% 20% 21% 20% 19% 1% 1% EB79 Spring 2013 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% EB62.1 Nov. 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 Effects of the Crisis 24% 2% 3% 3% 3% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Constitution Failure 23% 21% Migrant Crisis Subprimes 8th EP elections 7th EP elections Bolkestein Directive Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 42 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 2. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS Economic projections as a whole are fairly gloomy: fewer than one third are optimistic, whichever indicator is analysed. Projections about the national economic situation for the coming 12 months13 are dominated by pessimism, which wins out over optimism across virtually the whole of the period analysed (from autumn 2004 (EB62) to spring 2015 (EB83)). A key development occurred in spring 2015, and for only the third time: optimism once again started to predominate (26% thought that the coming 12 months would be 'better', while 21% thought they would be 'worse'). Over and above these two aspects, it is the response ‘no change’ which takes a clear lead. 13 What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? Situation in the economy (NATIONALITY)/Situation in the European economy/Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY). 43 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION What are your expectations for the next twelve months:Will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it comes to…? - The economic situation in (OUR COUNTRY) - Better 33% 38% 37% 39% 38% 40% 41% 36% 35% 21% 6% 6% EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 37% 35% 28% 29% 26% 19% 34% 40% 36% 5% 5% 37% 31% 35% EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 40% 39% 36% 31% 30% 28% 25% 24% 6% EB68 Autumn 2007 24% 16% 15% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 24% 28% 23% 23% 16% 21% 21% 26% 22% 21% 6% 5% 5% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 17% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Constitution Failure 45% 28% 19% 7% 40% 48% 47% 36% 20% 5% 45% 44% 33% 37% 24% 19% Don't know 44% 46% 38% 27% 18% Same 51% 44% 43% Worse Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Subprimes Bolkestein Directive 8th EP elections 7th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 44 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The projections for employment at national level have also, for the most part, remained pessimistic across a large part of the period under review (the surveys in spring 2007 (EB67), autumn 2007 (EB68) and spring 2015 (EB83) being the only exceptions). What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it come s to...? - The Employment situation in (OUR COUNTRY) Better Worse Same Don't know 53% 47% 42% 34% 31% 17% 38% 35% 36% 18% 20% 40% 39% 38% 35% 21% 32% 31% 34% 26% 34% 25% 41% 38% 20% 38% 22% 36% 35% 35% 21% 45% 40% 34% 29% 23% 27% 46% 44% 43% 40% 22% 35% 23% 44% 42% 41% 35% 35% 44% 38% 30% 30% 26% 24% 20% 15% 18% 46% 20% 26% 21% 24% 23% 16% 13% 6% EB62 Autumn 2004 6% EB63 Spring 2005 5% EB64 Autumn 2005 6% EB65 Spring 2006 7% 5% EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 6% EB68 Autumn 2007 6% EB69 Spring 2008 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77.4 June 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 Subprimes Constitution Failure Effects of the Crisis 6% 5% 5% EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Migrant Crisis 8th EP elections 7th EP elections Bolkestein Directive Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 45 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION In the case of the projections for the European economy, the pessimists mostly prevail over the optimists. However, across the whole of the period (from autumn 2006 (EB66) to spring 2015 (EB83)), the response ‘no change’ is in the majority in most of the surveys analysed. What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it come s to...? - The economic situation in the EU - Better Worse 46% 42% 41% 38% 38% 38% Same 44% 40% 38% Don't know 43% 39% 39% 44% 42% 42% 24% 24% 24% 20% 19% 14% 13% EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 38% 35% 31% 28% 28% 25% 27% 26% 24% 21% 18% 17% 21% 13% 11% 11% 12% 34% 35% 37% 27% 25% 21% 21% 16% 10% EB68 Autumn 2007 22% 18% 16% EB66 Autumn 2006 31% 32% 30% 12% 16% 17% 9% 9% 8% EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 21% 18% 16% 7% 9% 16% 12% EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Subprimes 7th EP elections 8th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 46 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 3. THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE FACE OF THE CRISIS In spite of serious concerns relating to the economic difficulties, Europeans continue to favour joint action by means of coordinated measures to individual measures. The proportion of Europeans who believe that they would be better protected against the financial and economic crisis if their country adopted measures individually rose between the start of 2009 and June 2013 14: it moved gradually from 26% to 41%. Over the same period, the proportion of those advocating measures taken in a coordinated manner with other EU countries went from 61% to 50%: they remain in the majority, however. As a citizen would you say that you would be better protected in the face of the current crisis if…? (OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them individually (OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them in a coordinated way with the other EU countries Don't know 62% 61% 56% 55% 52% 50% 41% 38% 36% 33% 29% 26% 13% 15% 8% EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. 2009 EB74.1 Sep. 2010 EB75.2 April 2011 9% EB76.1 Sep. 2011 7% EB77.2 Mar. 2012 9% EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis 7th EP elections EU28 14 As a citizen, do you feel that you would be better protected against the current crisis if...? (OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them individually/(OUR COUNTRY) adopted measures and applied them in a coordinated manner with other EU countries/ Don't know. 47 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The European Union remains the player best placed to take effective action in response to the crisis The European Union heads the field of players seemingly best placed to take effective action against the effects of the crisis, closely followed by national governments. Other players such as the G20, the IMF and the United States were cited less often. In your opinion, which of the following is best able to take effective actions against the effects of the financial and economic crisis? The (NATIONALITY) Government The European Union The United States The G20 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 26% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 16% 20% 16% 18% 14% 20% 14% 12% 15% 23% 23% 22% 20% 20% 16% 14% 14% 11% 14% EB73 Spring 2010 19% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 8% 8% 8% EB78 Autumn 2012 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 14% 13% 7% 7% 6% 5% EB72 Autumn 2009 22% 15% 12% EB71 Spring 2009 20% 15% 14% 7% 24% 23% 21% EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 8% EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 Effects of the Crisis The Ukrainian crisis 7th EP elections EU28 8th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission 48 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION High but differing expectations of the European Union When asked where they would like to see the European Union’s budget allocated to as a priority15, Europeans cited a range of areas, reflecting high but differing expectations of the EU. Two economic matters head the list: social affairs and employment (50% in June 2013 – i.e. +14 points since the first time this question was asked, in autumn 2008, in the EB70), and economic growth (48%, +10 points). These are followed by education and training (43%, +13 points), and public health (41%, +9 points). Other considerations are cited by less than a quarter of Europeans. 15 And on which of the following would you like the EU budget to be spent? Firstly? And then? (YOU MAY SELECT UP TO 4 AREAS) 49 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION And on which of the following would you like EU budget to be spent? Firstly? And then? EB79.5 June 2013 EB75 Spring 2011 EB70 Autumn 2008 50% Social affairs and employment 42% 36% 48% Economic growth 40% 38% 43% Education and training 39% 30% 41% Public health 36% 32% 22% 20% 19% Scientific research 18% Energy issues 22% 22% 18% 19% Agriculture and rural development 14% 17% Climate change and environmental protection 22% 23% 15% 14% 17% Defence and security 14% 14% 13% Regional investment 12% 12% 12% Immigration issues 7% 6% 7% Development and humanitarian aid to countries outside the EU 6% 5% 5% Transport Assistance to EU neighbours, and to candidate countries (if necessary: explain that candidate countries are countries that are officially candidates for accessing the EU) 5% 5% 7% 5% 4% 4% Culture and media Administrative and personnel costs, buildings Other (SPONTANEOUS) None (SPONTANEOUS) Don't know 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 9% (PLEASE SELECT A MAXIMUM OF 4 AREAS) 50 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION A growing majority do not feel that the euro has limited the impact of the crisis Although Europeans see the European Union as a credible player when it comes to addressing the financial and economic crisis, they do not feel that the single currency has played a part in limiting the impact of the crisis 16. A majority of Europeans have since early 2009 (EB71.1) disagreed with the view that the euro has mitigated the adverse effects of the crisis. This figure has grown overall, passing the 50% mark in spring 2011 (EB75). Could you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the following statement: Overall the euro has mitigated the negative effects of the crisis. Total 'Agree' Total 'Disagree' Don't know 54% 51% 51% 49% 44% 39% 48% 45% 41% 37% 39% 38% 37% 34% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 11% EB71.1 Jan. - Feb. 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76.1 September 2011 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis 7th EP elections EU28 Yet in the eyes of the same Europeans, as is shown on page 15, the euro is the second most important thing in terms of what the EU represents for them personally. The euro is also one of the most important factors in European identity, coming in second place after democratic values (page 38). 16 Could you tell me to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: overall the euro has mitigated the negative effects of the crisis 51 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Europeans divided on the pace of integration The view that Europe should wait until all Member States are ready before stepping up the development of common European policies in key areas has gained ground since this question was first asked in spring 2007 (EB67.2): it has become the majority view, rising from 37% in spring 2007 to 48% in September 2015 (EB84.1). When it comes to EU’s activities, some Member States are ready to set up common European policy in certain important areas. Do you think that they should…? Do so without waiting for the other EU Member States Wait for all the EU Member States to be ready to do it Don't know 47% 47% 45% 46% 47% 43% 43% 49% 48% 41% 37% 40% 16% EB67 Spring 2007 42% 39% 13% 13% EB76.4 December 2011 EB78.2 Nov.-Dec. 2012 7th EP elections 11% 10% EB79.5 June 2013 EB81.1 January 2014 12% 11% EB82.4 Dec. 2014 EB84.1 September 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Effects of the Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty 8th EP elections Subprimes Greek elections Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 52 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION 4. PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY Strengthening the European Union's economic performance Europeans have been asked, since autumn 2004, to state what initiatives they consider would strengthen the economic performance of the EU17: during the period under review (autumn 2004 to June 2013)18, they consistently placed ‘improving education and professional training’ at the top of their list. 60% respondents cited this item in the period up until the start of the economic crisis in 2008. From 2009 onwards – i.e. from the start of the crisis, but also with the addition of new items – it is cited less often, while remaining top of the list by some way. Between 2004 and 2009, the second-placed initiative for improving the economic performance of the European Union was investing in research and innovation. From the EB72 in autumn 2009, around a year after the start of the crisis, it remains a key priority in the eyes of Europeans, even though it is cited less often. Reducing public deficits and debt, which was added at the time the crisis became a debt crisis, in the EB72 of spring 2010, has grown in importance and took over in second place from autumn 2010. Making it easier to start a business is also perceived as a priority lever for improving the performance of the European economy: it occupies third place in most of the surveys reviewed. 17 Which three initiatives could most improve the performance of the European economy? (YOU MAY SELECT UP TO 3 INITIATIVES) 18 N.B. New items were gradually added to this field in 2009 and 2010, which altered the order of priority of the responses. It would nevertheless seem worthwhile considering those changes, which reflect the economic crisis, while factoring in the usual methodological precautions arising from the changes to the list of initiatives given to respondents. 53 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Which three initiatives could most improve the performance of the European economy? EB62.1 Nov. 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Most cited answer 2nd most cited answer 3rd most cited answer Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 63% 49% 43% Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 60% 49% 46% Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 58% 43% 42% Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 62% 47% 43% Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 65% 47% 43% Improve education and professional training Invest in research and innovation Make it easier to set up a business 52% 40% 34% Improve education and professional training Make it easier to set up a business Invest in research and innovation 42% 33% 28% Improve education and professional training Reduce public deficits and debt Make it easier to set up a business 47% 35% 33% Improve education and professional training Reduce public deficits and debt Make it easier to set up a business 48% 34% 34% Improve education and professional training Reduce public deficits and debt Make it easier to set up a business 46% 38% 35% Improve education and professional training Reduce public deficits and debt Make it easier to set up a business 46% 39% 33% Improve education and professional training Reduce public deficits and debt Make it easier to set up a business 47% 32% 32% (PLEASE SELECT A MAXIMUM OF 3 INITIATIVES) 54 DESK RESEARCH IV. TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION THE LIVES OF EUROPEANS THE MAIN FINDINGS Europeans’ expectations concerning their personal lives are dominated by the feeling that things will remain the same over in the year to come. More respondents viewed the future positively than negatively in most of the surveys reviewed. The crisis had a clear impact on their expectations. In their replies concerning 'life in general', fewer respondents were optimistic and more became pessimistic: this trend began in autumn 2007 and took off again in autumn 2011. However, since autumn 2011, there has been an increase in positive expectations among the European public. The same is true in the case of the personal job situation of respondents to surveys between 1998 and 2015. The area worst affected by the events of recent years has been the financial situation of households, with pessimism concerning the coming months being greater than optimism as early as spring 2008, and markedly so as from autumn 2011. It was not until spring 2014 that optimism overtook pessimism again (EB81). 55 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Personal outlooks have been consistent over time Throughout the period autumn 1995 to autumn 2014, a clear majority of Europeans felt their ‘life in general’ was going to remain the ‘same’ over the next 12 months (with percentages ranging from 49% to 59% over the period as a whole)19. Optimism has always won out over pessimism, although the gap between the two shrank significantly with the start of the economic crisis (from a 27-point gap in the EB54 in autumn 2000, to a 1-point gap in the EB76 in autumn 2011). However, since autumn 2013 (EB80), the gap has again started to widen (20 points in the EB83 survey in spring 2015). What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it come s to…? - Your life in general Better 56% 51% 33% 51% 55% 52% 34% 33% 33% 34% Same 54% 50% 31% Worse 33% 51% 51% 50% 34% 33% 32% 50% 35% Don't know 56% 54% 51% 34% 49% 51% 51% 35% 35% 34% 49% 49% 56% 55% 56% 57% 26% 26% 56% 30% 12% 3% 3% EB44 Autumn 1995 EB46 Autumn 1996 5% EB48 Autumn 1997 10% 4% 7% 4% 7% 4% 8% 5% EB50 Autumn 1998 EB52 Autumn 1999 EB54 Autumn 2000 EB56 Autumn 2001 15% 27% 16% 13% 11% 12% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% EB58 Autumn 2002 EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 13% 26% 24% 18% 22% 13% 15% 23% 22% 22% 57% 59% 58% 59% 12% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 EB 71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 11% 25% 27% 28% 29% 17% 15% 14% 20% 10% 11% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 14% 12% 11% 57% 32% 21% 16% 56% 37% 24% 13% 56% 51% 19% 19% 15% 9% Subprimes Effects of the Crisis Stability and Growth Pact Mad cow disease The Ukrainian Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Bolkestein Directive 5th EP elections Euro 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Constitution Failure EU25 Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 19 What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same when it comes to...? Your life in general / The financial situation of your household / Your personal job situation 56 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The findings are quite similar, but even more consistent, when Europeans are asked more specifically about their career prospects: an absolute majority of Europeans, varying very little between 1998 and 2015, think that things will stay the same in the coming year. Over the whole of the period under review, the proportion of Europeans who think that their personal job situation will improve is consistently higher than the proportion expecting it to deteriorate. That gap decreases with the start of the crisis, but not as much as for ‘life in general’. What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it come s to…? - Your personal job situation Better 62% 22% 8% 7% EB50 Autumn 1998 61% 24% 9% 61% 25% 9% 62% 23% 9% 61% 23% 8% 5% 6% 6% EB52 Autumn 1999 EB54 Autumn 2000 EB56 Autumn 2001 EB58 Autumn 2002 60% 60% 60% 61% 21% 21% 22% 22% 10% 10% 10% Worse 9% 8% 8% EB60 Autumn 2003 EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 61% 22% 22% 9% 9% 9% 60% EB64 Autumn 2005 9% Same 60% 60% 61% 23% 23% 22% 9% 9% 9% 61% 20% Don't know 58% 59% 59% 60% 60% 60% 18% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% EB65 Spring 2006 EB661 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 11% 10% 10% EB70 Autumn 2008 EB71 Spring 2009 Subprimes EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 EB74 Autumn 2010 12% 59% 60% 59% 59% 16% 16% 17% 17% 12% 12% 12% 9% EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 18% 13% 13% 12% 61% EB 77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 EB79.5 June 2013 Effects of the Crisis 60% 60% 20% 20% 13% 12% 60% 22% 10% 8% 7% 8% 8% EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 The Ukrainian Crisis Migrant Crisis Lisbon Treaty Constitution Failure 5th EP elections Euro 6th EP elections 8th EP elections Bolkestein Directive 7th EP elections Election of Juncker Commission EU25 EU27 EU28 57 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION The same general trends emerge when Europeans are asked how they expect the financial situation of their household to change: a majority expect their situation to remain the same in the coming year (between 50% and 60% over the period 1998 to 2012 as a whole). What are your expectations for the next twelve months: will the next twelve months be better, worse or the same, when it come s to…? - The financial situation of your household Better Worse Same Don't know 62% 58% 58% 59% 58% 56% 26% 55% 27% 27% 53% 24% 23% 14% 5% EB50 Autumn 1998 20% 11% 5% 4% 5% EB52 Autumn 1999 EB54 Autumn 2000 53% 54% 55% 54% 53% 50% 5% EB56 Autumn 2001 EB58 Autumn 2002 22% 24% 24% 18% 16% 11% 52% 27% 25% 10% 54% 55% 5% EB60 Autumn 2003 21% 25% 25% 24% 25% 19% 19% 19% 19% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% EB61 Spring 2004 EB62 Autumn 2004 EB63 Spring 2005 EB64 Autumn 2005 EB65 Spring 2006 58% 21% 20% 58% 60% 56% 58% 59% 56% 63% 61% 55% 52% 27% 24% 21% 20% 21% 20% 23% 18% 22% 16% 21% 25% 57% 19% 19% 19% 3% 3% 3% EB71 Spring 2009 EB72 Autumn 2009 EB73 Spring 2010 18% 18% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% EB66 Autumn 2006 EB67 Spring 2007 EB68 Autumn 2007 EB69 Spring 2008 EB70 Autumn 2008 17% 17% 18% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% EB74 Autumn 2010 EB75 Spring 2011 EB76 Autumn 2011 EB77 Spring 2012 EB78 Autumn 2012 24% 19% 19% 21% 22% 23% 19% 14% 14% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% EB79.5 June 2013 EB80 Autumn 2013 EB81 Spring 2014 EB82 Autumn 2014 EB83 Spring 2015 11% Subprimes Effects of the Crisis The Ukrainian Crisis Lisbon Treaty Migrant Crisis Bolkestein Directive 5th EP elections Euro 8th EP elections 7th EP elections 6th EP elections Constitution Failure EU25 Election of Juncker Commission EU27 EU28 58 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION CONCLUSION The main findings to emerge from this review were as follows: 1/ A number of trends can be detected from an assessment of the changes in European public opinion over the period of more than forty years from 1973 to 2014: - Since 1973, the feeling that membership of the EU is a good thing has been shared by a clear majority of Europeans. - Moreover, since 1983 and reaching a peak in 2015, a majority of respondents have felt their country has benefited from membership of the EU. - Despite some fluctuations, economic circumstances and political changes have had little impact on the feeling of attachment to the European Union. 2/ However, the major institutional and political developments affecting the EU and in particular successive enlargements and the eight European elections held since 1979 have frequently brought about changes in opinion: - Enlargements have often proved to be occasions on which views on the EU have improved after an initial hardening of opinion. This is particularly true in the case of feelings about membership of the EU, as well as confidence in the EU and the image of the EU. - In the case of European elections, this swing is less clear. However, in the aftermath of European elections, one sees an increase in the feeling among European citizens that '[their] vote counts in the EU'. There was a particularly sharp increase in that feeling after the elections in May 2014. 3/ Throughout the period under review, economic circumstances have had a determining effect on swings in European public opinion. Economic crises have triggered a serious worsening of opinions about the European Union, especially when those crises are likely to impact directly on the lives of European citizens. This is especially true of the 2008 economic crisis, which produced significant changes in the indicators reflecting support for the European Union: - There was a significant deterioration of the EU's image between autumn 2011 and autumn 2013, when the economic crisis became a Member State public debt crisis; since autumn 2013, there has been a gradual increase in the number of respondents having a positive image of the EU. - confidence in the European Union and its institutions deteriorated from spring 2010: confidence in the EU reached a low point in spring 2012, spring 2013, autumn 2013 and spring 2014, before recovering in autumn 2014 and in spring 2015, while remaining the minority opinion. - The crisis also had an adverse impact on the feeling among European citizens that their voices were not taken into account in the European Union. 59 DESK RESEARCH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION Unsurprisingly, the assessment indicators for the economic situation have also deteriorated, sometimes spectacularly, since the start of the crisis. Since autumn 2008, the economic situation in Europe has been judged increasingly ‘bad’ by Europeans, and this reached a low-point in autumn 2011. Since then, however, the number of respondents viewing the economic situation positively has started to increase. - There has also been an impact on outlook indicators: between 2009 and 2011, the proportion of Europeans feeling that the national and European economic situations would improve over the next 12 months fell, before recovering again as from 2011. - However, an absolute majority of Europeans has continued to believe that their life, their personal job situation and the financial situation of their household would remain stable over the coming 12 months. - The changeover to the euro does not seem to have had a major impact on European public opinion: all that happened was national sentiments peaked very slightly immediately before the launch of the single currency (in 2002). - On the other hand, a majority of Europeans feel that the euro has not mitigated the negative effects of the crisis. Nevertheless, it remains a key factor in European identity and an important symbol of what the EU means to Europeans. 4/ The economic crisis has understandably had repercussions on Europeans' opinions, especially when it comes to indicators of support for the EU, but there are several positive considerations: - Even though some indicators show support for the EU to have hardened during the crisis, a clear majority of Europeans still feel that there is more that unites the citizens of the Member States than divides them: this was the case each time this question was asked, in 2008, 2009, 2013 and 2015. - Europeans believe that they would be better protected against the crisis if their country took coordinated measures with the other Member States, rather than individual measures. However, this feeling decreased between September 2011 and June 2013, despite remaining the majority feeling. - Between 2009 and 2015, the EU was always considered by Europeans to be the player best placed to take effective action against the effects of the financial and economic crisis. 60 This desk research focusses on the major shifts in European public opinion towards the European Union since 1973, when Eurobarometer was created by Jacques-René Rabier. The results are presented in a timeline and illustrate the evolution of citizens' opinion in the key phases of the Union's institutional, political, economic and social development. This is the second edition of the 2014 Desk Research, updated with results of the 2015 Parlemeter. The main findings on the evolution of public opinion in the last 40 years from 1973 to 2014 show that it has gone up and down, notably in response to financial, economic and social crises. The major institutional and political staging-posts in the EU's development have generally improved the perception of the EU. This is particularly true of enlargements and elections to the European Parliament. This analysis shows the overriding influence of the economic and social context on public opinion. This is very well illustrated by the financial and economic crisis which began in 2008, prompting a sharp decline in indicators of support for the EU. However, even in this context of crisis, results show that Europeans remain committed to Europe when it comes to basic EU values. This is a publication of the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit Directorate-General for Communication, European Parliament PE 570 421 ISBN 978-92-823-8596-8 doi:10.2861/003001 QA-04-16-026-EN-N The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work.
