modelo de lluvia aplicado a la provincia de santa fe

&8$'(5126GHO&85,+$09ROGR6HPHVWUH
02'(/2'(//89,$$3/,&$'2$/$3529,1&,$'(6$17$)(
,QJ6XVDQD%9DQOHVEHUJ,QJ0DULR/6LOEHU
)DFXOWDGGH,QJHQLHUtD\&LHQFLDV+tGULFDV8QLYHUVLGDG1DFLRQDOGHO/LWRUDO
5(680(1
/RV IHQyPHQRV KLGUROyJLFRVHQ XQD ]RQDGHWHUPLQDGD QR VH SURGXFHQGH PDQHUD
KRPRJpQHDHVSHFLDOPHQWHHQHOFDVRGHODSUHFLSLWDFLyQ
(QDUDVGHYHULILFDUODKRPRJHQHLGDGHQHOiUHDHOHJLGDSDUDHOHVWXGLRVHUHDOL]y
XQ DQiOLVLV GH SUHFLSLWDFLRQHV GLDULDV PHGLDQWH OD DSOLFDFLyQ GH XQ PRGHOR GH DQiOLVLV
UHJLRQDO GHOOXYLDV
(VWH PRGHOR DQDOL]D OD RFXUUHQFLD GH HYHQWRV \ VX LPSRUWDQFLD HQ HO DSRUWH GH
OOXYLDV DSOLFDQGR SDUD HOOR XQD IXQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ TXH FRPELQD OD IXQFLyQ GH
GLVWULEXFLyQGHHYHQWRVHQXQSHUtRGRGDGR\ODIXQFLyQ GHGLVWULEXFLyQGHOYROXPHQWRWDO
GHOOXYLDGXUDQWHFDGDSHUtRGR
(OiUHDVHOHFFLRQDGDSDUDVXDSOLFDFLyQHVOD]RQDGHORV%DMRV6XEPHULGLRQDOHV
6DQWDIHVLQRV
,1752'8&&,¾1
/RV IHQyPHQRV KLGUROyJLFRVHQ XQD ]RQDGHWHUPLQDGD QR VH SURGXFHQGH PDQHUD
KRPRJpQHDHVSHFLDOPHQWHHQHOFDVRGHODSUHFLSLWDFLyQ
/D OOXYLD FRQVWLWX\H OD FRPSRQHQWH GH HQWUDGD PiV LPSRUWDQWH HQ ORV VLVWHPDV
KLGUROyJLFRV GH WDO PDQHUD HV OD UHVSRQVDEOH SULQFLSDO GH ORV SURFHVRV GH JHQHUDFLyQ GH
FUHFLGDV \ WDPELpQ HV OD YDULDEOH OLPLWDQWH GH OD GLVSRQLELOLGDG GHO UHFXUVR DJXD HQ XQD
UHJLyQGHWHUPLQDGD
/DHVWLPDFLyQGHVFULSFLyQ\PRGHODFLyQGHORVUHJLVWURV\FDPSRVGHLQWHQVLGDGHV
GH SUHFLSLWDFLyQ FRQVWLWX\H XQ LPSRUWDQWH FDPSR GH OD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ FX\RV UHVXOWDGRV
SXHGHQDSRUWDUVXVWDQFLDOHVPHMRUDVHQORVPpWRGRVGHSURQyVWLFRGHFUHFLGDVHYDOXDFLyQ
SODQLILFDFLyQ\JHVWLyQGHORVVLVWHPDVGHUHFXUVRVKtGULFRV
6HKDFHQWUDGRSRUORWDQWRODDWHQFLyQHQHVWDYDULDEOHFRQVLGHUDQGRSDUDHVWHILQ
VHULHVKLVWyULFDVGHOOXYLDGLDULDHQVHLVHVWDFLRQHVSOXYLRPpWULFDVSHUWHQHFLHQWHV DOD]RQD
GH%DMRV6XEPHULGLRQDOHVGHOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
0RGHORGH/OXYLDDSOLFDGRDOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
6HKDDSOLFDGRXQ0RGHORGHDQiOLVLVUHJLRQDOGHOOXYLDVTXHDQDOL]DORVHYHQWRV\
VXLPSRUWDQFLDHQFXDQWRDOYROXPHQGHOOXYLDDSRUWDGR
6HKDXWLOL]DGRODIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHRFXUUHQFLDGHHYHQWRV\ODIXQFLyQGH
GLVWULEXFLyQ GH OD FDQWLGDG GH DJXD FDtGD HQ XQ SHUtRGR GH WLHPSR W HQ HO TXH VH KDQ
UHJLVWUDURQXQGHWHUPLQDGRQ~PHURGHHYHQWRV
/DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SULQFLSDOHV GH ODV VHULHV GH OOXYLD GLDULD VRQ LQWHUPLWHQFLD
SUHVHQFLDGHSHULRGLFLGDGHV\FDUiFWHUHVWRFiVWLFR'HWRGDVHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVODTXHVH
SUHVHQWDFRPRSULQFLSDOREVWiFXORDODKRUDGHPRGHODUHVODLQWHUPLWHQFLDHQORVUHJLVWURV
DGHPiVGHODVLPSRUWDQWHVIOXFWXDFLRQHVREVHUYDGDVHQHVWDYDULDEOH
(O FDUiFWHU LQWHUPLWHQWH GH OD YDULDEOH KDFH TXH GHEDQ FRQVLGHUDUVH SURFHVRV
HVWRFiVWLFRVHQODIRUPXODFLyQGHXQPRGHORPDWHPiWLFRSDUDOOXYLD(VWDSURSXHVWDKDVLGR
HPSOHDGDHQRWURVWUDEDMRVDORVFXDOHVVHORVPHQFLRQDHQODVUHIHUHQFLDV
/D DSOLFDFLyQ GH OD 7HRUtDGH 3UREDELOLGDG FRQMXQWDPHQWH FRQ OD IRUPXODFLyQ GH
KLSyWHVLVSUHFLVDVSHUPLWHREWHQHUODIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ GHXQGHWHUPLQDGRIHQyPHQR
KLGUROyJLFR
0HGLDQWHODV WpFQLFDV GH OD (VWDGtVWLFD ,QIHUHQFLDO HV SRVLEOH HVWLPDU SDUiPHWURV
VLHPSUHFRQHOREMHWLYRGHDSOLFDUHVWRVUHVXOWDGRVDODVROXFLyQGHSUREOHPDVFRQFUHWRV
0(72'2/2*º$
3DUDHVWHHVWXGLRVHKDQVHOHFFLRQDGRVHLVHVWDFLRQHVSOXYLRPpWULFDVXELFDGDVHQOD
]RQDQRUWHGHODSURYLQFLDGH6DQWD)HFRQRFLGDFRPRUHJLyQGHORV%DMRV6XEPHULGLRQDOHV
VDQWDIHVLQRV*UDQSDUWHGHODVHVWDFLRQHVXELFDGDVHQHVWD]RQDVRQRKDQVLGRRSHUDGDVSRU
RUJDQLVPRV S~EOLFRVWDOHV FRPR HO 6HUYLFLR 0HWHRUROyJLFR 1DFLRQDO D WUDYpV GH
)HUURFDUULOHVROD'LUHFFLyQ3URYLQFLDOGH+LGUiXOLFDGHOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)HPLHQWUDV
TXH RWUDV VRQ RSHUDGDV SRU SURGXFWRUHV R FRRSHUDWLYDV GH SURGXFWRUHV GH OD UHJLyQ 6H
GLVSRQHHQFDGDXQDGHHOODVGHUHJLVWURVSOXYLRPpWULFRVHQHOSHUtRGR(VWRV
GDWRVRULJLQDOHVKDQVLGRRUGHQDGRVUHOOHQDGRVSRUORVDXWRUHVGHOSUHVHQWHWUDEDMR
(OIHQyPHQRGHODOOXYLDVREUHXQiUHDVHSXHGHGHILQLUHQWpUPLQRVGHHYHQWRVORV
FXDOHV SXHGHQ FRQVLGHUDUVH IRUPDGRV SRU UHJLVWURV GH SUHFLSLWDFLyQ GLDULD HQ IRUPD
LQLQWHUUXPSLGDOLPLWDGDVSRUYDORUHVXPEUDOHVGHILQLGRV HQ FDGD FDVR RUHJLyQ DQDOL]DGD
(QHVWDiUHDGHHVWXGLRVHKDFRQVLGHUDGRTXHXQYDORUXPEUDOLQIHULRUDGHFXDGRHVPP
SRU OR WDQWR ORV HYHQWRV GH OOXYLD HVWDUiQ IRUPDGRV SRU GtDV FRQVHFXWLYRV FRQ OOXYLDV
VXSHULRUHVDHVWHYDORU'HDFXHUGRDHVWDGHILQLFLyQVHUHDOL]yHODQiOLVLVHQHOSHUtRGR
&8$'(5126GHO&85,+$09ROGR6HPHVWUH
HQODVVHLVHVWDFLRQHVVHOHFFLRQDGDVSDUDHVWHHVWXGLR6HFRQVLGHUDTXHHVWHSHUtRGRHV
PHWHRUROyJLFDPHQWH KRPRJpQHR HVWR VLJQLILFD TXH GHQWUR GH pO OD SUREDELOLGDG GH
RFXUUHQFLDGHXQHYHQWROOXYLRVRSHUPDQHFHDSUR[LPDGDPHQWHFRQVWDQWH
/DV HVWDFLRQHV DQDOL]DGDV VRQ $QWRQLR 3LQL (VWDQFLD (O *XDQDJiQ (O
1RFKHUR*DUDEDWR*XD\FXU~9HUD
'HQWURGHOSHUtRGRHVWXGLDGRVHFRQVLGHUDODRFXUUHQFLDGHH HYHQWRVFDGDXQRFRQ
XQDLQWHQVLGDGGHWHUPLQDGD
3DUD HO DQiOLVLV GH OD YDULDEOH RFXUUHQFLD GH HYHQWRV OOXYLRVRV VH SDUWH GH
FRQVLGHUDUHOPRGHOR%LQRPLDOVLHOQ~PHURGHSUXHEDVVHKDFHJUDQGHDOWRPDUHODxRHO
Q~PHURGHSUXHEDVHVLJXDOD\ODSUREDELOLGDGGHSUHVHQWDFLyQGHOIHQyPHQRVHKDFH
SHTXHxD SHUR FRQ HO SURGXFWR GH HVWDV GRV FDQWLGDGHV DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH FRQVWDQWHV HO
PRGHORTXHVHGHULYDHVHOGH3RLVVRQ &RQHVWHPRGHORVHPRGHODODRFXUUHQFLDGHHYHQWRV
OOXYLRVRVVXIXQFLyQGHFXDQWtDHV
3 ;
[
H OH O H [
[
GRQGH OH HV HO SDUiPHWUR GHO PRGHOR \ VX VLJQLILFDGR ItVLFR HV HO Q~PHUR PHGLR GH
RFXUUHQFLDVGHHYHQWRVOOXYLRVRVHQFDGDSHUtRGRDQDOL]DGR\VHHVWLPDDSDUWLUGHODVVHULHV
KLVWyULFDV
(VWH PRGHOR HVWi tQWLPDPHQWH YLQFXODGR D ORV SURFHVRV HVWRFiVWLFRV GDGD VX
GHSHQGHQFLDGHOWLHPSRHQHOTXHVHUHDOL]DHODQiOLVLV(VDVtTXHVLHOSHUtRGRGHDQiOLVLVVH
GXSOLFDUDRWULSOLFDUDHOYDORUGHOSDUiPHWURVXIULUtDHOPLVPRFDPELR
8QIHQyPHQRSDUDVHUFODVLILFDGRFRPRSURFHVRGH3RLVVRQ GHEHFXPSOLUFRQODV
VLJXLHQWHVFRQGLFLRQHV
HVWDFLRQDULHGDG ODSUREDELOLGDGGHTXHRFXUUDXQHYHQWRGDGRHQXQLQWHUYDOR
GHWLHPSRPX\SHTXHxR'WHVSURSRUFLRQDODHVHWLHPSRHLJXDODO'W
QR PXOWLSOLFLGDG OD SUREDELOLGDG GH TXH RFXUUDQ GRV R PiV HYHQWRV HQ XQ
LQWHUYDORGHWLHPSRSHTXHxR'WHVGHVSUHFLDEOHFRPSDUDGRDO'W
LQGHSHQGHQFLD HO Q~PHUR GH HYHQWRV HQ DOJ~Q LQWHUYDOR GH WLHPSR HV
LQGHSHQGLHQWHGHOQ~PHURGHHYHQWRVHQDOJ~QRWURLQWHUYDOR
3DUDPRGHODUODFDQWLGDGGHOOXYLDSUHFLSLWDGDVHDGRSWDODIXQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQ
H[SRQHQFLDOFX\DH[SUHVLyQHVODVLJXLHQWH
0RGHORGH/OXYLDDSOLFDGRDOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
); H
O S [
¦ O
M S
[ M M
Q
DODTXHVHOHKDDGLFLRQDGRXQWpUPLQR¦ O
OS [M M
M VLHQGR Q HO Q~PHUR GH GtDV GHO HYHQWR \ OS HV HO SDUiPHWUR GH OD GLVWULEXFLyQ FX\R
VLJQLILFDGR HV OD LQYHUVD GH OD LQWHQVLGDG PHGLD GH ORV HYHQWRV OOXYLRVRV HQ HO SHUtRGR
DQDOL]DGR
$QiOLVLV
(QWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHVVHOOHYyDGHODQWHHOSURFHVDPLHQWRGHORVGDWRVDxRVGH
OOXYLDGLDULDFRQHOILQGHREWHQHUODVHVWLPDFLRQHVGHORVSDUiPHWURVO
OH \ OSSDUDFDGDPHV
GHODxR
(O DQiOLVLV GH ORV YDORUHV GH HVWRV HVWLPDGRUHV SHUPLWH GHFLU TXH HO
FRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHOIHQyPHQRHQOD]RQDHVEDVWDQWHKRPRJpQHR(VWRSXHGHREVHUYDUVHHQ
OD 7DEOD 1• TXH PXHVWUD ORV YDORUHV GH OH \ HO JUiILFR FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH SDUD WRGDV ODV
HVWDFLRQHV *UiILFR 1• (V GH KDFHU QRWDU TXH HQ WRGDV HOODV ORV YDORUHV VRQ GHO PLVPR
RUGHQ GH PDJQLWXG HQ ORV PHVHV GH HQHUR D DEULO PLHQWUDV TXH GH PD\R D VHWLHPEUH ORV
YDORUHVGHOSDUiPHWURVRQPiVEDMRVUHSXQWDQGRGHRFWXEUHDGLFLHPEUH(VWRVLJQLILFDTXH
VHUHJLVWUDPD\RUQ~PHURGHHYHQWRVGHOOXYLDHQWUHORVPHVHVHQHURDDEULO\HVWRVHGDGH
PDQHUDKRPRJpQHDHQWRGDOD]RQDDQDOL]DGD
(OPLVPRDQiOLVLVVHKDUHDOL]DGRSDUDHOSDUiPHWURO
OSPXHVWUDGHHOORVHSUHVHQWD
HQOD7DEOD1•\HOJUiILFRFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHSDUDWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHV*UiILFR1•(VWR
SHUPLWH GHWHUPLQDU OD LPSRUWDQFLD GH ORV HYHQWRV UHJLVWUDGRV 6H REVHUYD TXH ORV YDORUHV
VRQGHOPLVPRRUGHQGHPDJQLWXGUHJLVWUiQGRVHORVPiVLPSRUWDQWHVGHPD\RULQWHQVLGDG
HQ ORV PHVHV GH PD\R D VHWLHPEUH HVWR LQGLFD TXH D SHVDU GH VHU PHQRV IUHFXHQWHV ODV
OOXYLDVVRQGHPD\RULPSRUWDQFLD
(VWH FRPSRUWDPLHQWR GH ORV SDUiPHWURV SHUPLWLy REWHQHU ORV YDORUHV PHGLRV
PHQVXDOHV SDUD HO iUHD /XHJR D HVWRV YDORUHV VH OH DMXVWDURQ SROLQRPLRV GH GLVWLQWRV
yUGHQHV/RVYDORUHVHVWLPDGRVVHREVHUYDQHQOD7DEOD1•/RVJUiILFRVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV
VRQHO1•\1•
&8$'(5126GHO&85,+$09ROGR6HPHVWUH
3DUD OH VH DMXVWy XQ SROLQRPLR GH JUDGR FXDWUR FRQ OD VLJXLHQWH H[SUHVLyQ \ ORV
VLJXLHQWHVYDORUHV
OH D D [D [D [D [
D D D D D VLHQGR 6 \U 3DUDO
OS HOSROLQRPLR\VXVYDORUHVVRQ
OS D D [D [D [D [D [
D D D D D D VLHQGR6 \U &RQ ORV YDORUHV GH ORV SDUiPHWURV GHO PRGHOR SURSXHVWR SDUD FDGD XQD GH ODV
HVWDFLRQHV \ FDGD XQR GH ORV PHVHV VH HVWLPDURQ ODV SUHFLSLWDFLRQHV FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D
GLVWLQWRV SHUtRGRV GH UHWRUQR 7 VLHQGR 7 )[ HO WLHPSR SURPHGLR KDVWD TXH VH
YHULILFDXQYDORUPHQRURLJXDOD [XWLOL]DQGRODH[SUHVLyQ
6HSUHVHQWDQORVYDORUHVSDUDHOFDVR7 DxRVHQODVHVWDFLRQHV (O1RFKHUR\
9HUDHQORVPHVHVGH(QHUR\-XOLR
8QDYH]FDOFXODGRVHVWRVYDORUHVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQVHXWLOL]DURQODVH[SUHVLRQHVGH
ORV SROLQRPLRV DMXVWDGRV D FDGD XQR GH ORV SDUiPHWURV \ VH REWXYLHURQ ORV YDORUHV GH
SUHFLSLWDFLyQ FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D ORV PLVPRV SHUtRGRV GH UHWRUQR VH PXHVWUD HO
FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDDxRVDHIHFWRVGHVXFRPSDUDFLyQ
0HVHV
(QHUR
-XOLR
(O1RFKHUR
&21&/86,21(6
9HUD
3ROLQRPLRV
6H SXHGH LQIHULU DO DQDOL]DU ORV UHVXOWDGRV DQWHULRUHV TXH ORV YDORUHV GH
SUHFLSLWDFLyQ FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV D XQ SHUtRGRGH UHWRUQR DxRV HV GHFLU SDUD )[ 0RGHORGH/OXYLDDSOLFDGRDOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
VRQ DFHSWDEOHV VL FRQMXQWDPHQWH VH DQDOL]D OD IXQFLyQ GH GLVWULEXFLyQ HPStULFD R VHD OD
IXQFLyQGHYDORUHVREVHUYDGRV*UiILFRV1•\1•
8VDQGRODH[SUHVLyQGHOPRGHORSHURXWLOL]DQGRORVSROLQRPLRVSUHVHQWDGRVSDUD
HVWLPDUORVYDORUHVGHORVSDUiPHWURVO
OH \O
OS VHREWLHQHQYDORUHVGHSUHFLSLWDFLyQGHQWUR
GHOPLVPRRUGHQGHPDJQLWXG
(QWRQFHVSXHGHFRQFOXLUVHTXHHVWDPHWRGRORJtDSURSXHVWDSXHGHVHUXWLOL]DGDHQ
HVWD ]RQDSDUDREWHQHU YDORUHV GH SUHFLSLWDFLyQ SDUDGLVWLQWRV SHUtRGRV GH UHWRUQR \D TXH
H[LVWHQOXJDUHVHQHVWDiUHDHQORVTXHVHFDUHFHWRWDOPHQWHGHLQIRUPDFLyQ
6HUHDOL]DUiHOPLVPRWUDEDMRHQRWUDV]RQDVGHODSURYLQFLD\DTXHFRQVWLWX\HXQD
LPSRUWDQWHKHUUDPLHQWDSDUDHOGLVHxR
7DEOD1•/DPEGDHYHQWRVO
OH SDUDWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHV
0HVHV
$3LQL
(D*XDQDJ (O1RFKHUR *DUDEDWR *XD\FXU~
0HVHV
9HUD
7DEOD1•/DPEGDSUHFLSLWDFLyQO
OSSDUDWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHV
$3LQL
(D*XDQDJ (O1RFKHUR
*DUDEDWR
*XD\FXU~
9HUD
&8$'(5126GHO&85,+$09ROGR6HPHVWUH
7DEOD1•9DORUHVGHORVSDUiPHWURVPHGLRVPHQVXDOHVHVWLPDGRV\DMXVWDGRV
OH DMXVWDGR
OH
HVWLPDGR
OS
HVWLPDGR
OS DMXVWDGR
*UiILFR1•
/DPEGDHSDUDWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHV9DORUHVH[SHULPHQWDOHV
/DPEGDH
0HVHV
$3LQL
(D*XDQDJ
0HVHV
(O1RFKHUR
*DUDEDWR
*XD\FXUX
9HUD
0RGHORGH/OXYLDDSOLFDGRDOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
*UiILFR1•
/DPEGDSSDUDWRGDVODVHVWDFLRQHV9DORUHVH[SHULPHQWDOHV
ODPEGDS
$3LQL
(D*XDQDJ
0HVHV
(O1RFKHUR
*DUDEDWR
*XD\FXUX
9HUD
*UiILFR1•
9DORUHVGHODPEGDHPHGLRVPHQVXDOHVH[SHULPHQWDOHV\DMXVWDGRV
OD
P
EG
DH
PHVHV
ODPEGDHH[S
ODPEGDHDMXVW
&8$'(5126GHO&85,+$09ROGR6HPHVWUH
*UiILFR1•
9DORUHVGHODPEGDH[SHULPHQWDOHV\DMXVWDGRV
ODPEGD
PHVHV
ODPEGDSH[S
ODPEGDSDMXVW
*UiILFR1•
)XQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQHPStULFD(O1RFKHUR0HVGHHQHUR
)Q[
3UHFLSLWDFLRQHV
0RGHORGH/OXYLDDSOLFDGRDOD3URYLQFLDGH6DQWD)H
*UiILFR1•
)XQFLyQGHGLVWULEXFLyQHPStULFD9HUD0HVGH-XOLR
)Q[
3UHFLSLWDFLRQHV
5()(5(1&,$6
$SDULFLR 0LMDUHV )UDQFLVFR - )XQGDPHQWRV GH +LGURORJtD GH
6XSHUILFLH1RULHJD(GLWRUHV(GLWRULDO/LPXVD0p[LFR
%HQMDPtQ-<&RUQHOO&3UREDELOLW\6WDWLVWLFVDQG'HFLVLRQIRU&LYLO
(QJLQHHUV0F*UDZ+LOO%RRNFRPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
/ODPDV - +\GURORJLH JpQpUDOH 3ULQFLSHV HW $SSOLFDWLRQV *DHWDQ
0RULQ(G4XHEHF&DQDGi
7XFFL&DUORV+LGURORJtD&LrQFLDH$SOLFDFDR(GLWRU&DUORV07XFFL
(GLWRUDGD8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6mR3DXOR6mR3DXOR%UDVLO